Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-922u
ROI
-46.7%
win rate
39%
bets
51
drawdown
93.3%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
payments
Stake size
Martingale
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7profit withdrawn+0u
period 6profit withdrawn+0u
period 5profit withdrawn+0u
period 4profit withdrawn+0u
period 3profit withdrawn+0u
period 2top-up-1000u
period 1profit withdrawn+78u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% of bankroll | 545 | 42% | -508 | -9.9% | 50.8% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 545 | 42% | -535 | -9.8% | 53.5% | Select |
| Martingale | 51 | 39% | -922 | -46.7% | 93.3% | Selected |
| 2% of bankroll | 545 | 42% | -964 | -9.9% | 96.4% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 545 | 42% | -2057 | -9.6% | 205.7% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 545 | 42% | -3323 | -9% | 332.3% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 51, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05.05.26 | Clutchain fe – Dripmen | Clutchain fe | 1.95 | 462 | lost | -462 | 78 |
| 04.05.26 | m4rk – sjuush | sjuush | 1.89 | 320 | lost | -320 | 540 |
| 04.05.26 | Players – FURIA fe | FURIA fe | 1.89 | 160 | lost | -160 | 860 |
| 04.05.26 | GenOne – aAa | aAa | 2.17 | 80 | lost | -80 | 1020 |
| 04.05.26 | Crashers – ALZON | Crashers | 2.01 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1100 |
| 04.05.26 | Keyd Stars – paiN Academy | paiN Academy | 1.89 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1140 |
| 04.05.26 | Imperial – Bounty Hunters | Bounty Hunters | 1.90 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1160 |
| 03.05.26 | RBLS – HYPERSPIRIT | HYPERSPIRIT | 2.10 | 40 | won | +44 | 1170 |
| 03.05.26 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER – Ground Zero | Ground Zero | 1.95 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1126 |
| 02.05.26 | INOX Division – Aurora Young Blud | Aurora Young Blud | 2.11 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1146 |
| 02.05.26 | GenOne – INOX Division | INOX Division | 1.95 | 40 | won | +38 | 1156 |
| 02.05.26 | ZEVS – Just Swing | ZEVS | 1.89 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1118 |
| 02.05.26 | Voca – Wildcard | Voca | 2.38 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1138 |
| 02.05.26 | ELITES – UNO MILLE | UNO MILLE | 1.89 | 20 | won | +18 | 1148 |
| 02.05.26 | ShindeN – Bounty Hunters | ShindeN | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1130 |
| 01.05.26 | Lilmix – INFINITE | INFINITE | 1.96 | 10 | won | +10 | 1140 |
| 01.05.26 | Chaos – Just Swing | Just Swing | 1.89 | 40 | won | +36 | 1131 |
| 01.05.26 | HYPERSPIRIT – MANA | HYPERSPIRIT | 1.95 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1095 |
| 01.05.26 | NEXVOID – Chinggis Warriors | Chinggis Warriors | 1.95 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1115 |
| 01.05.26 | Abyssal – FURY | Abyssal | 1.95 | 20 | won | +19 | 1125 |
| 01.05.26 | JiJieHao – Wings of Freedom | Wings of Freedom | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1106 |
| 01.05.26 | HereWeGoAgain – Crashers | Crashers | 1.96 | 40 | won | +38 | 1116 |
| 30.04.26 | Vitality – G2 | G2 | 1.89 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1078 |
| 30.04.26 | MANA – ASTRAL | MANA | 1.95 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1098 |
| 30.04.26 | CYBERSHOKE – aAa | CYBERSHOKE | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1108 |
| 30.04.26 | HEROIC Academy – Oxuji | Oxuji | 1.89 | 20 | won | +18 | 1099 |
| 30.04.26 | Walczaki – HYPERSPIRIT | HYPERSPIRIT | 2.23 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1081 |
| 30.04.26 | Abyssal – Ding Cuts | Abyssal | 1.89 | 20 | won | +18 | 1091 |
| 30.04.26 | OverKnight – Shimmer | OverKnight | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1073 |
| 30.04.26 | ShindeN – MIBR Academy | ShindeN | 1.95 | 10 | won | +10 | 1083 |
| 30.04.26 | Imperial – Fake do Biru | Imperial | 1.95 | 40 | won | +38 | 1074 |
| 29.04.26 | KOLESIE – Walczaki | KOLESIE | 2.08 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1036 |
| 29.04.26 | The QUBE – Rare Atom | The QUBE | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1056 |
| 29.04.26 | TYLOO – Chinggis Warriors | Chinggis Warriors | 1.95 | 80 | won | +76 | 1066 |
| 29.04.26 | Yawara – Bounty Hunters | Yawara | 1.89 | 40 | lost | -40 | 990 |
| 29.04.26 | GameHunters – ShindeN | GameHunters | 1.95 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1030 |
| 28.04.26 | CYBERSHOKE – ex-Zero Tenacity | CYBERSHOKE | 1.95 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1050 |
| 28.04.26 | Time Waves – low cortisol | low cortisol | 1.89 | 20 | won | +18 | 1060 |
| 28.04.26 | Surge – F5 | Surge | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1042 |
| 28.04.26 | InControl – girl kissers | InControl | 1.95 | 20 | won | +19 | 1052 |
| 28.04.26 | Wildcard – Aether | Aether | 2.09 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1033 |
| 28.04.26 | ShindeN – Isurus | Isurus | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1043 |
| 27.04.26 | Just Swing – Chinggis Warriors | Chinggis Warriors | 1.95 | 20 | won | +19 | 1034 |
| 27.04.26 | FarmVille – insane players | insane players | 2.03 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1015 |
| 26.04.26 | aimclub – BASEMENT BOYS | BASEMENT BOYS | 1.95 | 40 | won | +38 | 1025 |
| 26.04.26 | Walczaki – playersclub | playersclub | 1.95 | 20 | lost | -20 | 987 |
| 26.04.26 | INOX Division – RUSTEC | INOX Division | 1.95 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1007 |
| 26.04.26 | Haunted House – Kaleido | Kaleido | 1.89 | 20 | won | +18 | 1017 |
| 26.04.26 | Alter Ego – The QUBE | The QUBE | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 999 |
| 26.04.26 | Passion UA – NuTorious | Passion UA | 1.95 | 20 | won | +19 | 1009 |
| 26.04.26 | NRG – LAG | LAG | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 990 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.