Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
+0u
ROI
+0%
win rate
0%
bets
0
drawdown
0%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
💰
Stake size
Quarter Kelly
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4profit withdrawn+0u
period 3profit withdrawn+0u
period 2profit withdrawn+0u
period 1profit withdrawn+0u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2% of bankroll | 617 | 49% | +34 | +0.3% | 46.1% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 617 | 49% | +30 | +0.1% | 66.1% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 617 | 49% | +22 | +0.4% | 30.8% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 617 | 49% | +20 | +0.3% | 29.6% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 617 | 49% | -247 | -0.4% | 86.6% | Select |
| Martingale | 193 | 54% | -460 | -6.1% | 69.5% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 0, showing the last 60.
This strategy places no bets in the selected sample.
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.