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Model underdog (Elo)

CSCS21% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-2113u
ROI
-9.1%
win rate
43%
bets
2832
drawdown
210.4%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

1% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-348u
period 6top-up-455u
period 5top-up-389u
period 4top-up-226u
period 3top-up-224u
period 2top-up-355u
period 1top-up-116u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale17245%-1846-27.8%164.7%Select
1% of bankroll283243%-2113-9.1%210.4%Select
Flat (10 units)283243%-2435-8.6%242.3%Select
2% of bankroll283243%-3645-9.5%359.9%Select
5% of bankroll283243%-5923-10.2%571.4%Select
10% of bankroll283243%-6788-10.3%631.7%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 2832, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26FURIA – BETBOOMBETBOOM2.047lost-7-1113
14.10.26FOKUS – YounglingsYounglings2.457lost-7-1107
14.10.26FORZE Reload – LFO 10LFO 102.647lost-7-1100
14.10.26Butterfly – Nuclear TigeRESButterfly2.297lost-7-1093
14.10.26Just Players – FOKUSFOKUS2.087won+7-1087
14.10.26G2 Ares – The Last ResortThe Last Resort2.027lost-7-1094
14.10.26PCIFIC – RyvexPCIFIC1.927won+6-1087
14.10.26fnatic – SashiSashi2.987lost-7-1093
14.10.26HOTU – AstralisAstralis2.357won+9-1086
14.10.26Banda Chuya – 6666Banda Chuya2.577lost-7-1095
14.10.26HOTU – fnaticfnatic1.937lost-7-1089
14.10.26MARKandLARRY – RoosterMARKandLARRY2.197lost-7-1082
14.10.269z – Aurora9z2.677won+11-1075
14.10.26Gothic – LavkedLavked2.057won+7-1086
14.10.26Enjoy – B8 AcademyB8 Academy1.907lost-7-1093
14.10.26Zomblers – Overtake SectorZomblers2.217lost-7-1087
14.10.26your end – SUKEBANyour end2.097won+7-1080
14.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – Galorysex-Keyd Stars2.787lost-7-1087
13.10.26Grêmio – LOS NINOSGrêmio2.017lost-7-1080
13.10.26GenOne – ButterflyButterfly2.297won+9-1073
13.10.26UPGRADE – OmegaOmega2.117lost-7-1082
13.10.26Black Phoenix – 666666662.907lost-7-1075
13.10.26JiJieHao – BBLBBL2.167lost-7-1068
13.10.26QUINTESSÊNCIA – MartiansMartians1.907lost-7-1061
13.10.26Bushido Wildcats – IllyriansIllyrians2.047won+7-1054
13.10.26100 Thieves – JiJieHaoJiJieHao1.997lost-7-1061
13.10.26Liquid – BBLBBL2.117lost-7-1054
13.10.26Fruju – RoosterFruju2.107lost-7-1047
13.10.26Overtake Sector – Iowa StormboarIowa Stormboar1.957lost-7-1040
13.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – LPex-Keyd Stars2.187lost-7-1033
12.10.266666 – megoshortmegoshort2.017lost-7-1025
12.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Johnny SpeedsJohnny Speeds2.698lost-8-1018
12.10.26SAW Youngsters – IllyriansSAW Youngsters2.098lost-8-1010
12.10.26Nordic Partners – ex-RUSTECNordic Partners2.688lost-8-1003
12.10.26PRIVATE – Johnny SpeedsJohnny Speeds2.188won+9-995
12.10.26Inner Circle – Ninjas in PyjamasInner Circle1.998lost-8-1004
12.10.26Sangal – BetclicBetclic2.458lost-8-996
12.10.26Alter Ego – Chinggis WarriorsAlter Ego2.078won+8-988
12.10.26Fire Flux – mellrenmellren2.028won+8-997
12.10.26Ninjas in Pyjamas – BetclicBetclic2.548lost-8-1004
12.10.26Fruju – MARKandLARRYMARKandLARRY2.068won+8-997
12.10.26Enjoy – Saint SinnersEnjoy1.968lost-8-1005
12.10.26Overtake Sector – regainOvertake Sector1.968won+7-997
12.10.26BORRACHEIROS – Bounty HuntersBORRACHEIROS2.098lost-8-1004
11.10.26DENDELE – ImperialDENDELE3.128won+16-997
11.10.26DIVINITY – ex-RUSTECDIVINITY2.408lost-8-1013
11.10.26mellren – LavkedLavked2.648lost-8-1005
11.10.26BET-M – PRIVATEPRIVATE1.918won+7-997
11.10.26acidhouze – Inner Circle Academyacidhouze2.458won+11-1004
11.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Just PlayersJust Players1.978lost-8-1015
11.10.26GenOne – Banda ChuyaBanda Chuya3.528lost-8-1008
11.10.26Bebop – mellrenBebop2.908lost-8-1000
11.10.26The KnockoutX – Alter EgoThe KnockoutX2.318lost-8-992
11.10.26Aurora – SpiritAurora2.548won+12-984
11.10.26Just Players – MisaMisa2.558lost-8-996
11.10.26Ground Zero – AbyssalAbyssal2.148won+9-988
11.10.26Abyssal – KZGKZG2.078lost-8-997
11.10.26Ground Zero – FlyQuestGround Zero2.148lost-8-989
11.10.26Zomblers – Iowa StormboarZomblers2.078won+8-982
11.10.26Wanted Goons – DETONATEWanted Goons2.258lost-8-990
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.