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Model underdog (Elo)

CSCS21% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-2187u
ROI
-9.5%
win rate
43%
bets
2824
drawdown
217.8%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

1% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-309u
period 6top-up-375u
period 5top-up-292u
period 4top-up-309u
period 3top-up-294u
period 2top-up-397u
period 1top-up-211u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale21741%-686-6.7%81.2%Select
1% of bankroll282443%-2187-9.5%217.8%Select
Flat (10 units)282443%-2481-8.8%247.1%Select
2% of bankroll282443%-3810-10%376.2%Select
5% of bankroll282443%-6205-10.9%598.4%Select
10% of bankroll282443%-6925-9.7%644.2%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 2824, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26fnatic – SashiSashi2.987lost-7-1187
14.10.26Banda Chuya – 6666Banda Chuya2.577lost-7-1180
14.10.26Astralis – SashiSashi2.427lost-7-1173
14.10.26MARKandLARRY – RoosterMARKandLARRY2.197lost-7-1166
14.10.269z – Aurora9z2.677won+12-1158
14.10.26Gothic – LavkedLavked2.057won+7-1170
14.10.26GenOne – 666666662.417won+10-1178
14.10.26Zomblers – Overtake SectorZomblers2.217lost-7-1187
14.10.26your end – SUKEBANyour end2.097won+8-1180
14.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – Galorysex-Keyd Stars2.787lost-7-1188
13.10.26Grêmio – LOS NINOSGrêmio2.017lost-7-1181
13.10.26GenOne – ButterflyButterfly2.297won+9-1174
13.10.26UPGRADE – OmegaOmega2.117lost-7-1183
13.10.26Black Phoenix – 666666662.907lost-7-1176
13.10.26JiJieHao – BBLBBL2.167lost-7-1169
13.10.26Just Swing – Alter EgoJust Swing2.307lost-7-1162
13.10.26Bushido Wildcats – IllyriansIllyrians2.047won+7-1154
13.10.26100 Thieves – JiJieHaoJiJieHao1.997lost-7-1162
13.10.26Liquid – BBLBBL2.117lost-7-1155
13.10.26Fruju – RoosterFruju2.107lost-7-1147
13.10.26Overtake Sector – Iowa StormboarIowa Stormboar1.957lost-7-1140
13.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – LPex-Keyd Stars2.188lost-8-1132
12.10.266666 – megoshortmegoshort2.018lost-8-1125
12.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Johnny SpeedsJohnny Speeds2.698lost-8-1117
12.10.26SAW Youngsters – IllyriansSAW Youngsters2.098lost-8-1110
12.10.26Nordic Partners – ex-RUSTECNordic Partners2.688lost-8-1102
12.10.26PRIVATE – Johnny SpeedsJohnny Speeds2.188won+9-1094
12.10.26Sangal – BetclicBetclic2.458lost-8-1103
12.10.26Inner Circle – Ninjas in PyjamasInner Circle1.998lost-8-1095
12.10.26Alter Ego – Chinggis WarriorsAlter Ego2.078won+8-1087
12.10.26Fire Flux – mellrenmellren2.028won+8-1096
12.10.26Ninjas in Pyjamas – BetclicBetclic2.548lost-8-1104
12.10.26Fruju – MARKandLARRYMARKandLARRY2.068won+8-1096
12.10.26Enjoy – Saint SinnersEnjoy1.968lost-8-1104
12.10.26Overtake Sector – regainOvertake Sector1.968won+7-1096
12.10.26Yawara – GalorysYawara2.618lost-8-1104
11.10.26DENDELE – ImperialDENDELE3.128won+16-1096
11.10.26DIVINITY – ex-RUSTECDIVINITY2.408lost-8-1112
11.10.26BET-M – PRIVATEPRIVATE1.918won+7-1104
11.10.26mellren – LavkedLavked2.648lost-8-1111
11.10.26acidhouze – Inner Circle Academyacidhouze2.458won+11-1104
11.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Just PlayersJust Players1.978lost-8-1115
11.10.26GenOne – Banda ChuyaBanda Chuya3.528lost-8-1107
11.10.26Bebop – mellrenBebop2.908lost-8-1099
11.10.26The KnockoutX – Alter EgoThe KnockoutX2.318lost-8-1091
11.10.26Aurora – SpiritAurora2.548won+12-1083
11.10.26Just Players – MisaMisa2.558lost-8-1095
11.10.26Ground Zero – AbyssalAbyssal2.148won+9-1088
11.10.26Abyssal – KZGKZG2.078lost-8-1096
11.10.26Ground Zero – FlyQuestGround Zero2.148lost-8-1089
11.10.26EMPIRE – regainEMPIRE2.208lost-8-1081
11.10.26Overtake Sector – Chicken CoopChicken Coop2.248won+10-1073
11.10.26Zomblers – Iowa StormboarZomblers2.078won+8-1082
11.10.26Ground Zero – AbyssalAbyssal2.148lost-8-1091
11.10.26Procyon – BORRACHEIROSBORRACHEIROS2.108won+9-1083
11.10.26Galorys – MEIA NOITEMEIA NOITE2.848lost-8-1092
10.10.26NRG – WildcardWildcard1.928won+7-1084
10.10.26Marsborne – SportsBetExpertSportsBetExpert2.028won+8-1091
10.10.26FaZe – NAVI JuniorNAVI Junior1.968lost-8-1099
10.10.26Fathom – SportsBetExpertFathom2.838lost-8-1091
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.