Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
-172u
ROI
-3.2%
win rate
57%
bets
543
drawdown
28.7%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
payments
Stake size
1% of bankroll
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-39u
period 6profit withdrawn+65u
period 5top-up-106u
period 4top-up-20u
period 3top-up-87u
period 2profit withdrawn+50u
period 1top-up-35u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 543 | 57% | +551 | +4.2% | 38.5% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 543 | 57% | -168 | -3.1% | 28.4% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 543 | 57% | -172 | -3.2% | 28.7% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 543 | 57% | -354 | -3.3% | 53.8% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 543 | 57% | -967 | -3.6% | 110.6% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 543 | 57% | -2231 | -4.4% | 163.3% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 543, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.10.26 | Enjoy – B8 Academy | Enjoy | 1.87 | 10 | won | +8 | 828 |
| 13.10.26 | UPGRADE – Omega | UPGRADE | 1.71 | 9 | won | +7 | 820 |
| 13.10.26 | 100 Thieves – JiJieHao | 100 Thieves | 1.80 | 9 | won | +7 | 813 |
| 12.10.26 | Inner Circle – Ninjas in Pyjamas | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 1.79 | 9 | won | +7 | 805 |
| 12.10.26 | Yawara – Galorys | Galorys | 1.48 | 9 | won | +4 | 798 |
| 11.10.26 | DENDELE – Imperial | Imperial | 1.35 | 9 | lost | -9 | 794 |
| 11.10.26 | Nuclear TigeRES – Just Players | Nuclear TigeRES | 1.81 | 9 | won | +8 | 803 |
| 11.10.26 | Just Players – Misa | Just Players | 1.50 | 9 | won | +5 | 795 |
| 10.10.26 | Abyssal – Mindfreak | Abyssal | 1.51 | 9 | won | +5 | 791 |
| 10.10.26 | Ground Zero – KZG | Ground Zero | 1.56 | 9 | won | +5 | 786 |
| 10.10.26 | Grêmio – BORRACHEIROS | BORRACHEIROS | 1.80 | 9 | won | +7 | 781 |
| 09.10.26 | WBT Academy – SAW Youngsters | WBT Academy | 1.53 | 9 | lost | -9 | 774 |
| 09.10.26 | Azuolas – Enjoy | Enjoy | 1.40 | 9 | lost | -9 | 783 |
| 09.10.26 | mellren – Bebop | mellren | 1.36 | 9 | lost | -9 | 792 |
| 09.10.26 | Club 333 – OverKnight | Club 333 | 1.86 | 9 | won | +8 | 802 |
| 08.10.26 | MOUZ NXT – HYPERSPIRIT | HYPERSPIRIT | 1.82 | 9 | lost | -9 | 794 |
| 08.10.26 | Betclic – PRIVATE | Betclic | 1.73 | 9 | lost | -9 | 803 |
| 08.10.26 | CYBERSHOKE – Nexus | CYBERSHOKE | 1.82 | 10 | lost | -10 | 812 |
| 08.10.26 | Rare Atom – Just Swing | Rare Atom | 1.57 | 10 | lost | -10 | 822 |
| 08.10.26 | THE UNIT – The KnockoutX | The KnockoutX | 1.82 | 10 | won | +8 | 832 |
| 08.10.26 | QUINTESSÊNCIA – ex-Keyd Stars | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 1.75 | 10 | lost | -10 | 824 |
| 07.10.26 | SAW – RBLS | SAW | 1.63 | 10 | lost | -10 | 833 |
| 07.10.26 | Sangal – SAW | Sangal | 1.72 | 10 | won | +7 | 843 |
| 07.10.26 | Iberian Soul – ex-RUSTEC | ex-RUSTEC | 1.56 | 10 | lost | -10 | 836 |
| 07.10.26 | Just Players – HYPERSPIRIT | Just Players | 1.55 | 10 | won | +5 | 846 |
| 07.10.26 | Nas – Kaleido | Nas | 1.79 | 10 | lost | -10 | 841 |
| 07.10.26 | Falcons Force – Orion Wanderers | Falcons Force | 1.71 | 10 | won | +7 | 850 |
| 07.10.26 | OG – Falcons Force | OG | 1.56 | 10 | lost | -10 | 844 |
| 07.10.26 | G2 Ares – Falcons Force | G2 Ares | 1.82 | 10 | won | +8 | 853 |
| 07.10.26 | Gothic – LPH | LPH | 1.60 | 10 | lost | -10 | 845 |
| 06.10.26 | FURIA – Aurora | Aurora | 1.81 | 10 | won | +8 | 855 |
| 06.10.26 | Spirit – 1win | Spirit | 1.55 | 10 | lost | -10 | 847 |
| 05.10.26 | ShindeN – G2 | G2 | 1.85 | 10 | won | +8 | 857 |
| 03.10.26 | NT – Lazer Cats | Lazer Cats | 1.68 | 10 | lost | -10 | 849 |
| 03.10.26 | regain – LAG | LAG | 1.55 | 10 | won | +5 | 859 |
| 02.10.26 | Alliance – Nemiga | Nemiga | 1.30 | 10 | won | +3 | 853 |
| 02.10.26 | Ninjas in Pyjamas – Johnny Speeds | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 1.62 | 10 | won | +6 | 850 |
| 02.10.26 | BASEMENT BOYS – Glitch | BASEMENT BOYS | 1.68 | 10 | won | +7 | 844 |
| 02.10.26 | SportsBetExpert – XEPT | SportsBetExpert | 1.32 | 10 | won | +3 | 838 |
| 02.10.26 | Nexus – 6yuBoJlbl | Nexus | 1.63 | 10 | lost | -10 | 835 |
| 02.10.26 | Voca – Sashi | Voca | 1.61 | 10 | won | +6 | 844 |
| 02.10.26 | UNiTY – aimclub | UNiTY | 1.76 | 10 | won | +7 | 838 |
| 02.10.26 | BBL – SportsBetExpert | SportsBetExpert | 1.37 | 10 | lost | -10 | 831 |
| 02.10.26 | Astralis – FaZe | FaZe | 1.84 | 10 | lost | -10 | 841 |
| 02.10.26 | 1337 – NEXVOID | NEXVOID | 1.54 | 10 | won | +5 | 851 |
| 01.10.26 | FaZe – Nemiga | Nemiga | 1.24 | 10 | won | +2 | 845 |
| 01.10.26 | EAC – ex-Zero Tenacity | ex-Zero Tenacity | 1.45 | 10 | lost | -10 | 843 |
| 01.10.26 | HOTU – Nemesis | HOTU | 1.87 | 10 | lost | -10 | 853 |
| 01.10.26 | SINQU – Famalicão | SINQU | 1.84 | 10 | lost | -10 | 863 |
| 01.10.26 | ex-ODDIK – Mira | Mira | 1.60 | 10 | won | +6 | 873 |
| 30.09.26 | PRIVATE – Nuclear TigeRES | Nuclear TigeRES | 1.48 | 11 | won | +5 | 867 |
| 29.09.26 | Privateer – eternal premium | eternal premium | 1.56 | 11 | won | +6 | 862 |
| 29.09.26 | WW – DNK | WW | 1.63 | 11 | lost | -11 | 856 |
| 29.09.26 | Rune Eaters – DNK | Rune Eaters | 1.67 | 11 | won | +7 | 867 |
| 28.09.26 | Leo – Noir Verse | Leo | 1.64 | 11 | lost | -11 | 860 |
| 28.09.26 | Marsborne – FarmVille | Marsborne | 1.41 | 11 | won | +4 | 870 |
| 28.09.26 | regain – LAG | LAG | 1.64 | 11 | won | +7 | 866 |
| 28.09.26 | Turma do Pagode – Yawara | Turma do Pagode | 1.86 | 10 | won | +9 | 859 |
| 27.09.26 | Nemiga – Color | Nemiga | 1.60 | 10 | won | +6 | 850 |
| 27.09.26 | INFINITE – RBLS | RBLS | 1.82 | 11 | lost | -11 | 844 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.