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Model favorite (Elo)

CSCS21% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

profit
-1088u
ROI
-4.3%
win rate
57%
bets
2822
drawdown
119.9%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model favorite (Elo)

payments
Stake size

1% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7profit withdrawn+18u
period 6top-up-150u
period 5top-up-299u
period 4top-up-235u
period 3top-up-234u
period 2top-up-190u
period 1profit withdrawn+2u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale6650%-1000-36.5%100%Select
1% of bankroll282257%-1088-4.3%119.9%Select
Flat (10 units)282257%-1143-4.1%125.8%Select
2% of bankroll282257%-2051-4.4%215.8%Select
5% of bankroll282257%-4138-4.9%398.9%Select
10% of bankroll282257%-5737-5.6%472.7%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 2822, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26Banda Chuya – 666666661.4910won+5-88
14.10.26MARKandLARRY – RoosterRooster1.6610won+7-93
14.10.269z – AuroraAurora1.4610lost-10-99
14.10.26GenOne – 6666GenOne1.5510lost-10-89
14.10.26Enjoy – B8 AcademyEnjoy1.8710won+9-79
14.10.26Zomblers – Overtake SectorOvertake Sector1.6510won+7-88
14.10.26your end – SUKEBANSUKEBAN1.7210lost-10-94
14.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – GalorysGalorys1.4310won+4-84
13.10.26Grêmio – LOS NINOSLOS NINOS1.7810won+8-88
13.10.26GenOne – ButterflyGenOne1.6010lost-10-96
13.10.26UPGRADE – OmegaUPGRADE1.7110won+7-86
13.10.26Black Phoenix – 6666Black Phoenix1.4010won+4-93
13.10.26JiJieHao – BBLJiJieHao1.6710won+7-97
13.10.26QUINTESSÊNCIA – MartiansQUINTESSÊNCIA1.8710won+9-104
13.10.26Bushido Wildcats – IllyriansBushido Wildcats1.7610lost-10-113
13.10.26Liquid – BBLLiquid1.7010won+7-103
13.10.26100 Thieves – JiJieHao100 Thieves1.8010won+8-110
13.10.26Fruju – RoosterRooster1.7110won+7-117
13.10.26Overtake Sector – Iowa StormboarOvertake Sector1.8310won+8-125
13.10.26Galorys – Bounty HuntersGalorys1.6210won+6-133
12.10.266666 – megoshort66661.7810won+7-139
12.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Johnny SpeedsNuclear TigeRES1.4510won+4-146
12.10.26SAW Youngsters – IllyriansIllyrians1.729won+7-150
12.10.26Nordic Partners – ex-RUSTECex-RUSTEC1.469won+4-157
12.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – XINuclear TigeRES1.349won+3-161
12.10.26Sangal – BetclicSangal1.539won+5-165
12.10.26Inner Circle – Ninjas in PyjamasNinjas in Pyjamas1.799won+7-170
12.10.26Lynn Vision – Just SwingLynn Vision1.759won+7-177
12.10.26Fire Flux – mellrenFire Flux1.779lost-9-184
12.10.26Ninjas in Pyjamas – BetclicNinjas in Pyjamas1.509won+5-175
12.10.26Fruju – MARKandLARRYFruju1.749lost-9-179
12.10.26Enjoy – Saint SinnersSaint Sinners1.829won+8-170
12.10.26Overtake Sector – regainregain1.829lost-9-178
12.10.26Yawara – GalorysGalorys1.489won+4-168
11.10.26DENDELE – ImperialImperial1.359lost-9-173
11.10.26DIVINITY – ex-RUSTECex-RUSTEC1.559won+5-163
11.10.26mellren – Lavkedmellren1.479won+4-168
11.10.26antidaun – Saint SinnersSaint Sinners1.819won+8-173
11.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Just PlayersNuclear TigeRES1.819won+7-180
11.10.26acidhouze – Inner Circle AcademyInner Circle Academy1.539lost-9-188
11.10.26GenOne – Banda ChuyaGenOne1.299won+3-178
11.10.26Bebop – mellrenmellren1.409won+4-181
11.10.26The KnockoutX – Alter EgoAlter Ego1.609won+5-185
11.10.26Aurora – SpiritSpirit1.509lost-9-190
11.10.26Just Players – MisaJust Players1.509won+5-181
11.10.26Ground Zero – AbyssalGround Zero1.699lost-9-186
11.10.26Abyssal – KZGAbyssal1.739won+7-176
11.10.26Ground Zero – FlyQuestFlyQuest1.699won+6-183
11.10.26Zomblers – Iowa StormboarIowa Stormboar1.739lost-9-189
11.10.26Overtake Sector – Chicken CoopOvertake Sector1.639lost-9-180
11.10.26EMPIRE – regainregain1.659won+6-171
11.10.26Ground Zero – AbyssalGround Zero1.699won+6-177
11.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – YawaraYawara1.829lost-9-183
11.10.26Procyon – BORRACHEIROSProcyon1.719lost-9-174
10.10.26NRG – WildcardNRG1.8510lost-10-164
10.10.26Marsborne – SportsBetExpertMarsborne1.7710lost-10-155
10.10.26FaZe – NAVI JuniorFaZe1.8210won+8-145
10.10.26Fathom – SportsBetExpertSportsBetExpert1.429won+4-153
10.10.26Without a Roof – Last Dance USWithout a Roof1.319won+3-157
10.10.26Holy Cannoli – Unreal NightmareHoly Cannoli1.6710lost-10-160
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model favorite (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.