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Underdog at odds ≥ 3.0

D2Dota 2Quarter Kellypayout: monthly

Bets the underdog at odds ≥ 3.0 — a solid dog. Fewer wins, but each pays triple; the variance and drawdowns are noticeably longer.

profit
-18300u
ROI
-96.6%
win rate
1%
bets
440
drawdown
1830%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Underdog at odds ≥ 3.0

💰
Stake size

Quarter Kelly

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-373u
period 24top-up-712u
period 23top-up-840u
period 22top-up-855u
period 21top-up-859u
period 20top-up-751u
period 19top-up-700u
period 18top-up-630u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale70%-1070-100%107%Select
1% of bankroll4421%-3859-95.4%385.9%Select
Flat (10 units)4421%-4210-95.2%421%Select
2% of bankroll4421%-7094-95.5%709.4%Select
5% of bankroll4421%-13996-95.9%1399.6%Select
Quarter Kelly4401%-18300-96.6%1830%Select
10% of bankroll4421%-19865-96.6%1986.5%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 440, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
15.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.0070lost-70-17300
13.08.26PARIVISION – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience15.009lost-9-17231
03.08.26Team Liquid – Vici GamingVici Gaming10.0053lost-53-17222
03.08.26GLYPH – PlayTimeGLYPH14.0063lost-63-17169
02.08.26Vici Gaming – OGOG13.0086lost-86-17107
01.08.26NS Team – VooDooSh TeamVooDooSh Team4.2093lost-93-17020
31.07.26BETBOOM Team – Team LiquidBETBOOM Team11.0032lost-32-16927
31.07.26Yakult Brothers – Zero TenacityYakult Brothers14.0036lost-36-16896
31.07.26Amaru Gaming – Vici GamingAmaru Gaming11.0015lost-15-16860
30.07.26Ilbirs eSports – Amaru GamingAmaru Gaming3.0021lost-21-16845
30.07.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingNigma Galaxy13.0044lost-44-16823
30.07.26Nigma Galaxy – 1w TeamNigma Galaxy14.0048lost-48-16780
29.07.26Rostik Team – TpaBoMaH TeamRostik Team10.0054lost-54-16731
28.07.26NS Team – TpaBoMaH TeamNS Team13.0060lost-60-16678
27.07.26NS Team – Rostik TeamRostik Team3.6066lost-66-16618
20.07.26Zero Tenacity – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming3.6021lost-21-16551
17.07.26Nigma Galaxy – BETBOOM TeamNigma Galaxy15.0055lost-55-16530
11.07.26PlayTime – Nigma GalaxyPlayTime5.8051lost-51-16475
10.07.26REKONIX – Team SpiritREKONIX15.0028lost-28-16424
08.07.26Team Yandex – Inner CircleInner Circle15.007lost-7-16396
08.07.26GamerLegion – Xtreme GamingGamerLegion15.0092lost-92-16389
08.07.26Poor Rangers – BETBOOM TeamPoor Rangers15.0023lost-23-16297
07.07.26Inner Circle – 1w TeamInner Circle15.0059lost-59-16274
28.06.26Nigma Galaxy – Yellow SubmarineYellow Submarine5.8011lost-11-16215
28.06.26By_Owl Team – ALOHADANCE TeamALOHADANCE Team13.0017lost-17-16204
25.06.26Team Spirit – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy12.0017lost-17-16187
24.06.26Recrent Team – Stray TeamRecrent Team10.0023lost-23-16169
24.06.26Dread Team – DangerLyoha TeamDangerLyoha Team3.2017lost-17-16146
21.06.26InterActive Philippines – Mentality MonsterInterActive Philippines10.0022lost-22-16130
21.06.26Grind Back – Carstensz EsportsCarstensz Esports13.0027lost-27-16108
19.06.26summer bear – Power Rangerssummer bear13.0023lost-23-16081
17.06.26Power Rangers – Flame EsportsFlame Esports12.0025lost-25-16058
16.06.26Flame Esports – Team Spirit AcademyFlame Esports4.2038lost-38-16033
13.06.26Estar Backs – Gior Dota TeamGior Dota Team12.0042lost-42-15995
11.06.26Team Nemesis – Gior Dota TeamGior Dota Team12.0045lost-45-15953
10.06.26L1ga Team – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity11.0045lost-45-15908
06.06.26Ramzes Club – TpaBoMaH ClubTpaBoMaH Club3.1035lost-35-15863
05.06.26LGD Gaming – Team LiquidTeam Liquid15.0061lost-61-15828
05.06.26Execration – REKONIXExecration13.0060lost-60-15767
04.06.26Carstensz Esports – REKONIXCarstensz Esports12.0060lost-60-15707
02.06.26L1ga Team – Poor RangersL1ga Team13.0081lost-81-15646
02.06.26LGD Gaming – Natus VincereNatus Vincere13.0090lost-90-15565
01.06.26Ramzes Club – TpaBoMaH ClubTpaBoMaH Club6.60100lost-100-15475
30.05.26Team Spirit – OGOG15.009lost-9-15375
28.05.26NS Club – Ramzes ClubNS Club5.3016lost-16-15367
27.05.26OG – Team YandexOG15.007lost-7-15350
26.05.26PARIVISION – Team YandexPARIVISION15.0020lost-20-15343
26.05.26Team Liquid – Team YandexTeam Liquid15.0022lost-22-15324
24.05.26Recrent Team – Solo TeamRecrent Team12.0024lost-24-15302
23.05.26Miposhka Team – Stray TeamMiposhka Team10.0027lost-27-15278
22.05.26Aurora Gaming – Tundra EsportsTundra Esports11.0028lost-28-15251
17.05.26Team Falcons – GamerLegionGamerLegion8.506lost-6-15223
16.05.26Tundra Esports – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team15.0034lost-34-15216
15.05.26Virtus.pro – Team SpiritVirtus.pro15.0018lost-18-15183
14.05.26Natus Vincere – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team10.0040lost-40-15164
12.05.26Two Move – Power RangersTwo Move12.0042lost-42-15125
11.05.26Team Lynx – Two MoveTeam Lynx12.0049lost-49-15083
10.05.261w Team – PARIVISION1w Team15.0026lost-26-15034
09.05.261w Team – REKONIXREKONIX15.0057lost-57-15008
08.05.26Nigma Galaxy – PlayTimeNigma Galaxy15.0063lost-63-14951
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Underdog at odds ≥ 3.0" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.