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Underdog at odds ≥ 5.0

D2Dota 2Quarter Kellypayout: monthly

Bets the clear underdog at odds ≥ 5.0. Rare but big wins with long losing streaks and deep drawdowns in between. Only for a large bankroll and patience.

profit
-17861u
ROI
-98.6%
win rate
0%
bets
398
drawdown
1786.1%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Underdog at odds ≥ 5.0

💰
Stake size

Quarter Kelly

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-309u
period 24top-up-651u
period 23top-up-797u
period 22top-up-855u
period 21top-up-829u
period 20top-up-751u
period 19top-up-700u
period 18top-up-690u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale70%-1070-100%107%Select
1% of bankroll3990%-3619-98.5%361.9%Select
Flat (10 units)3990%-3927-98.4%392.7%Select
2% of bankroll3990%-6687-98.5%668.7%Select
5% of bankroll3990%-13371-98.6%1337.1%Select
Quarter Kelly3980%-17861-98.6%1786.1%Select
10% of bankroll3990%-19299-98.9%1929.9%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 398, showing the last 60.
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
15.08.26Nigma Galaxy Vici GamingVici Gaming15.0077lost-77-16861
13.08.26PARIVISION Team ResilienceTeam Resilience15.009lost-9-16785
03.08.26Team Liquid Vici GamingVici Gaming10.0058lost-58-16775
03.08.26GLYPH PlayTimeGLYPH14.0069lost-69-16717
02.08.26Vici Gaming OGOG13.0095lost-95-16648
31.07.26BETBOOM Team Team LiquidBETBOOM Team11.0039lost-39-16553
31.07.26Yakult Brothers Zero TenacityYakult Brothers14.0043lost-43-16514
31.07.26Amaru Gaming Vici GamingAmaru Gaming11.0019lost-19-16471
30.07.26Nigma Galaxy Vici GamingNigma Galaxy13.0050lost-50-16452
30.07.26Nigma Galaxy 1w TeamNigma Galaxy14.0056lost-56-16402
29.07.26Rostik Team TpaBoMaH TeamRostik Team10.0062lost-62-16347
28.07.26NS Team TpaBoMaH TeamNS Team13.0069lost-69-16285
17.07.26Nigma Galaxy BETBOOM TeamNigma Galaxy15.0055lost-55-16217
11.07.26PlayTime Nigma GalaxyPlayTime5.8051lost-51-16161
10.07.26REKONIX Team SpiritREKONIX15.0028lost-28-16111
08.07.26Team Yandex Inner CircleInner Circle15.007lost-7-16082
08.07.26GamerLegion Xtreme GamingGamerLegion15.0092lost-92-16076
08.07.26Poor Rangers BETBOOM TeamPoor Rangers15.0023lost-23-15984
07.07.26Inner Circle 1w TeamInner Circle15.0059lost-59-15961
28.06.26Nigma Galaxy Yellow SubmarineYellow Submarine5.8014lost-14-15902
28.06.26By_Owl Team ALOHADANCE TeamALOHADANCE Team13.0022lost-22-15887
25.06.26Team Spirit Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy12.0022lost-22-15865
24.06.26Recrent Team Stray TeamRecrent Team10.0029lost-29-15843
21.06.26InterActive Philippines Mentality MonsterInterActive Philippines10.0026lost-26-15814
21.06.26Grind Back Carstensz EsportsCarstensz Esports13.0032lost-32-15788
19.06.26summer bear Power Rangerssummer bear13.0027lost-27-15756
17.06.26Power Rangers Flame EsportsFlame Esports12.0030lost-30-15729
13.06.26Estar Backs Gior Dota TeamGior Dota Team12.0045lost-45-15699
11.06.26Team Nemesis Gior Dota TeamGior Dota Team12.0048lost-48-15654
10.06.26L1ga Team Zero TenacityZero Tenacity11.0049lost-49-15606
05.06.26LGD Gaming Team LiquidTeam Liquid15.0061lost-61-15558
05.06.26Execration REKONIXExecration13.0060lost-60-15497
04.06.26Carstensz Esports REKONIXCarstensz Esports12.0060lost-60-15437
02.06.26L1ga Team Poor RangersL1ga Team13.0081lost-81-15376
02.06.26LGD Gaming Natus VincereNatus Vincere13.0090lost-90-15295
01.06.26Ramzes Club TpaBoMaH ClubTpaBoMaH Club6.60100lost-100-15205
30.05.26Team Spirit OGOG15.009lost-9-15105
28.05.26NS Club Ramzes ClubNS Club5.3016lost-16-15097
27.05.26OG Team YandexOG15.007lost-7-15080
26.05.26PARIVISION Team YandexPARIVISION15.0020lost-20-15074
26.05.26Team Liquid Team YandexTeam Liquid15.0022lost-22-15054
24.05.26Recrent Team Solo TeamRecrent Team12.0024lost-24-15032
23.05.26Miposhka Team Stray TeamMiposhka Team10.0027lost-27-15008
22.05.26Aurora Gaming Tundra EsportsTundra Esports11.0028lost-28-14981
17.05.26Team Falcons GamerLegionGamerLegion8.506lost-6-14953
16.05.26Tundra Esports BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team15.0034lost-34-14946
15.05.26Virtus.pro Team SpiritVirtus.pro15.0018lost-18-14913
14.05.26Natus Vincere BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team10.0040lost-40-14895
12.05.26Two Move Power RangersTwo Move12.0042lost-42-14855
11.05.26Team Lynx Two MoveTeam Lynx12.0049lost-49-14813
10.05.261w Team PARIVISION1w Team15.0026lost-26-14764
09.05.261w Team REKONIXREKONIX15.0057lost-57-14738
08.05.26Nigma Galaxy PlayTimeNigma Galaxy15.0063lost-63-14681
04.05.26Zero Tenacity REKONIXREKONIX12.0070lost-70-14618
03.05.26MOUZ Yellow SubmarineMOUZ14.0078lost-78-14547
02.05.26Vici Gaming Roar GamingRoar Gaming12.0049lost-49-14469
01.05.26Vici Gaming Cloud DawningCloud Dawning13.0070lost-70-14421
01.05.26Yakult Brothers Mideng DreamerMideng Dreamer12.00100lost-100-14351
30.04.26Power Rangers South America RejectsPower Rangers15.0019lost-19-14251
29.04.26Zero Tenacity South America RejectsZero Tenacity15.0021lost-21-14232
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Underdog at odds ≥ 5.0" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.