Underdog at odds ≥ 5.0
Bets the clear underdog at odds ≥ 5.0. Rare but big wins with long losing streaks and deep drawdowns in between. Only for a large bankroll and patience.
profit
-17861u
ROI
-98.6%
win rate
0%
bets
398
drawdown
1786.1%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Underdog at odds ≥ 5.0
💰
Stake size
Quarter Kelly
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-309u
period 24top-up-651u
period 23top-up-797u
period 22top-up-855u
period 21top-up-829u
period 20top-up-751u
period 19top-up-700u
period 18top-up-690u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 7 | 0% | -1070 | -100% | 107% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 399 | 0% | -3619 | -98.5% | 361.9% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 399 | 0% | -3927 | -98.4% | 392.7% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 399 | 0% | -6687 | -98.5% | 668.7% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 399 | 0% | -13371 | -98.6% | 1337.1% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 398 | 0% | -17861 | -98.6% | 1786.1% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 399 | 0% | -19299 | -98.9% | 1929.9% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 398, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.08.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 15.00 | 77 | lost | -77 | -16861 |
| 13.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Resilience | Team Resilience | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -16785 |
| 03.08.26 | Team Liquid – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 10.00 | 58 | lost | -58 | -16775 |
| 03.08.26 | GLYPH – PlayTime | GLYPH | 14.00 | 69 | lost | -69 | -16717 |
| 02.08.26 | Vici Gaming – OG | OG | 13.00 | 95 | lost | -95 | -16648 |
| 31.07.26 | BETBOOM Team – Team Liquid | BETBOOM Team | 11.00 | 39 | lost | -39 | -16553 |
| 31.07.26 | Yakult Brothers – Zero Tenacity | Yakult Brothers | 14.00 | 43 | lost | -43 | -16514 |
| 31.07.26 | Amaru Gaming – Vici Gaming | Amaru Gaming | 11.00 | 19 | lost | -19 | -16471 |
| 30.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Vici Gaming | Nigma Galaxy | 13.00 | 50 | lost | -50 | -16452 |
| 30.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – 1w Team | Nigma Galaxy | 14.00 | 56 | lost | -56 | -16402 |
| 29.07.26 | Rostik Team – TpaBoMaH Team | Rostik Team | 10.00 | 62 | lost | -62 | -16347 |
| 28.07.26 | NS Team – TpaBoMaH Team | NS Team | 13.00 | 69 | lost | -69 | -16285 |
| 17.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – BETBOOM Team | Nigma Galaxy | 15.00 | 55 | lost | -55 | -16217 |
| 11.07.26 | PlayTime – Nigma Galaxy | PlayTime | 5.80 | 51 | lost | -51 | -16161 |
| 10.07.26 | REKONIX – Team Spirit | REKONIX | 15.00 | 28 | lost | -28 | -16111 |
| 08.07.26 | Team Yandex – Inner Circle | Inner Circle | 15.00 | 7 | lost | -7 | -16082 |
| 08.07.26 | GamerLegion – Xtreme Gaming | GamerLegion | 15.00 | 92 | lost | -92 | -16076 |
| 08.07.26 | Poor Rangers – BETBOOM Team | Poor Rangers | 15.00 | 23 | lost | -23 | -15984 |
| 07.07.26 | Inner Circle – 1w Team | Inner Circle | 15.00 | 59 | lost | -59 | -15961 |
| 28.06.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Yellow Submarine | Yellow Submarine | 5.80 | 14 | lost | -14 | -15902 |
| 28.06.26 | By_Owl Team – ALOHADANCE Team | ALOHADANCE Team | 13.00 | 22 | lost | -22 | -15887 |
| 25.06.26 | Team Spirit – Nigma Galaxy | Nigma Galaxy | 12.00 | 22 | lost | -22 | -15865 |
| 24.06.26 | Recrent Team – Stray Team | Recrent Team | 10.00 | 29 | lost | -29 | -15843 |
| 21.06.26 | InterActive Philippines – Mentality Monster | InterActive Philippines | 10.00 | 26 | lost | -26 | -15814 |
| 21.06.26 | Grind Back – Carstensz Esports | Carstensz Esports | 13.00 | 32 | lost | -32 | -15788 |
| 19.06.26 | summer bear – Power Rangers | summer bear | 13.00 | 27 | lost | -27 | -15756 |
| 17.06.26 | Power Rangers – Flame Esports | Flame Esports | 12.00 | 30 | lost | -30 | -15729 |
| 13.06.26 | Estar Backs – Gior Dota Team | Gior Dota Team | 12.00 | 45 | lost | -45 | -15699 |
| 11.06.26 | Team Nemesis – Gior Dota Team | Gior Dota Team | 12.00 | 48 | lost | -48 | -15654 |
| 10.06.26 | L1ga Team – Zero Tenacity | Zero Tenacity | 11.00 | 49 | lost | -49 | -15606 |
| 05.06.26 | LGD Gaming – Team Liquid | Team Liquid | 15.00 | 61 | lost | -61 | -15558 |
| 05.06.26 | Execration – REKONIX | Execration | 13.00 | 60 | lost | -60 | -15497 |
| 04.06.26 | Carstensz Esports – REKONIX | Carstensz Esports | 12.00 | 60 | lost | -60 | -15437 |
| 02.06.26 | L1ga Team – Poor Rangers | L1ga Team | 13.00 | 81 | lost | -81 | -15376 |
| 02.06.26 | LGD Gaming – Natus Vincere | Natus Vincere | 13.00 | 90 | lost | -90 | -15295 |
| 01.06.26 | Ramzes Club – TpaBoMaH Club | TpaBoMaH Club | 6.60 | 100 | lost | -100 | -15205 |
| 30.05.26 | Team Spirit – OG | OG | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -15105 |
| 28.05.26 | NS Club – Ramzes Club | NS Club | 5.30 | 16 | lost | -16 | -15097 |
| 27.05.26 | OG – Team Yandex | OG | 15.00 | 7 | lost | -7 | -15080 |
| 26.05.26 | PARIVISION – Team Yandex | PARIVISION | 15.00 | 20 | lost | -20 | -15074 |
| 26.05.26 | Team Liquid – Team Yandex | Team Liquid | 15.00 | 22 | lost | -22 | -15054 |
| 24.05.26 | Recrent Team – Solo Team | Recrent Team | 12.00 | 24 | lost | -24 | -15032 |
| 23.05.26 | Miposhka Team – Stray Team | Miposhka Team | 10.00 | 27 | lost | -27 | -15008 |
| 22.05.26 | Aurora Gaming – Tundra Esports | Tundra Esports | 11.00 | 28 | lost | -28 | -14981 |
| 17.05.26 | Team Falcons – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 8.50 | 6 | lost | -6 | -14953 |
| 16.05.26 | Tundra Esports – BETBOOM Team | BETBOOM Team | 15.00 | 34 | lost | -34 | -14946 |
| 15.05.26 | Virtus.pro – Team Spirit | Virtus.pro | 15.00 | 18 | lost | -18 | -14913 |
| 14.05.26 | Natus Vincere – BETBOOM Team | BETBOOM Team | 10.00 | 40 | lost | -40 | -14895 |
| 12.05.26 | Two Move – Power Rangers | Two Move | 12.00 | 42 | lost | -42 | -14855 |
| 11.05.26 | Team Lynx – Two Move | Team Lynx | 12.00 | 49 | lost | -49 | -14813 |
| 10.05.26 | 1w Team – PARIVISION | 1w Team | 15.00 | 26 | lost | -26 | -14764 |
| 09.05.26 | 1w Team – REKONIX | REKONIX | 15.00 | 57 | lost | -57 | -14738 |
| 08.05.26 | Nigma Galaxy – PlayTime | Nigma Galaxy | 15.00 | 63 | lost | -63 | -14681 |
| 04.05.26 | Zero Tenacity – REKONIX | REKONIX | 12.00 | 70 | lost | -70 | -14618 |
| 03.05.26 | MOUZ – Yellow Submarine | MOUZ | 14.00 | 78 | lost | -78 | -14547 |
| 02.05.26 | Vici Gaming – Roar Gaming | Roar Gaming | 12.00 | 49 | lost | -49 | -14469 |
| 01.05.26 | Vici Gaming – Cloud Dawning | Cloud Dawning | 13.00 | 70 | lost | -70 | -14421 |
| 01.05.26 | Yakult Brothers – Mideng Dreamer | Mideng Dreamer | 12.00 | 100 | lost | -100 | -14351 |
| 30.04.26 | Power Rangers – South America Rejects | Power Rangers | 15.00 | 19 | lost | -19 | -14251 |
| 29.04.26 | Zero Tenacity – South America Rejects | Zero Tenacity | 15.00 | 21 | lost | -21 | -14232 |
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.