Underdog at odds ≥ 5.0
Bets the clear underdog at odds ≥ 5.0. Rare but big wins with long losing streaks and deep drawdowns in between. Only for a large bankroll and patience.
profit
+0u
ROI
+0%
win rate
0%
bets
0
drawdown
0%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Underdog at odds ≥ 5.0
payments
Stake size
Quarter Kelly
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25profit withdrawn+0u
period 24profit withdrawn+0u
period 23profit withdrawn+0u
period 22profit withdrawn+0u
period 21profit withdrawn+0u
period 20profit withdrawn+0u
period 19profit withdrawn+0u
period 18profit withdrawn+0u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% of bankroll | 69 | 14% | +3047 | +34.9% | 106.9% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 69 | 14% | +812 | +21.4% | 74.9% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 69 | 14% | +132 | +9.3% | 44.1% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 69 | 14% | +33 | +4.8% | 25% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 69 | 14% | +1 | +0.1% | 25.1% | Select |
| Martingale | 7 | 0% | -1150 | -100% | 115% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Selected |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 0, showing the last 60.
This strategy places no bets in the selected sample.
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.