Always the favorite
Bets the favorite of every match — the team with the lower odds. A simple baseline: hits often, but the low odds usually leave profit small or negative after the margin over the long run.
profit
+35u
ROI
+2%
win rate
58%
bets
36
drawdown
19.4%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Always the favorite
payments
Stake size
5% of bankroll
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3top-up-160u
period 2profit withdrawn+97u
period 1profit withdrawn+98u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% of bankroll | 36 | 58% | +44 | +1.3% | 31.8% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 36 | 58% | +35 | +2% | 19.4% | Selected |
| 2% of bankroll | 36 | 58% | +17 | +2.3% | 9% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 36 | 58% | +9 | +2.6% | 4.8% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 36 | 58% | +9 | +2.5% | 4.7% | Select |
| Martingale | 36 | 58% | +8 | +0.7% | 28.5% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 36, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.10.26 | Nemiga Gaming – Dawn Bulls | Dawn Bulls | 1.35 | 44 | lost | -44 | 1035 |
| 13.10.26 | CyberHero – Shadow Dance | Shadow Dance | 1.88 | 47 | lost | -47 | 1079 |
| 13.10.26 | Power Rangers – The WarriorsQ | Power Rangers | 1.82 | 45 | won | +37 | 1126 |
| 13.10.26 | Cloud Rising – Cloud Dawning | Cloud Rising | 1.82 | 43 | won | +35 | 1089 |
| 11.10.26 | Team Spirit – PARIVISION | Team Spirit | 1.70 | 41 | won | +29 | 1053 |
| 09.10.26 | Aurora Gaming – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.87 | 44 | lost | -44 | 1024 |
| 08.10.26 | Team Yandex – LGD Gaming | Team Yandex | 1.69 | 42 | won | +29 | 1068 |
| 06.10.26 | HULIGANI – CyberHero | CyberHero | 1.72 | 41 | won | +29 | 1039 |
| 03.10.26 | Team Spirit – Team Yandex | Team Yandex | 1.75 | 43 | lost | -43 | 1009 |
| 03.10.26 | Daxak Team – Cake Team | Daxak Team | 1.66 | 45 | lost | -45 | 1052 |
| 02.10.26 | 1w Team – Team Nemesis | Team Nemesis | 1.76 | 48 | lost | -48 | 1097 |
| 02.10.26 | LGD Gaming – Xtreme Gaming | Xtreme Gaming | 1.85 | 50 | lost | -50 | 1145 |
| 30.09.26 | PARIVISION – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.74 | 58 | lost | -58 | 1195 |
| 27.09.26 | avice Team – Cake Team | Cake Team | 1.82 | 55 | won | +46 | 1253 |
| 27.09.26 | LGD Gaming – Natus Vincere | Natus Vincere | 1.53 | 54 | won | +29 | 1207 |
| 26.09.26 | Rostik Team – avice Team | Rostik Team | 1.86 | 52 | won | +44 | 1178 |
| 25.09.26 | Team Nemesis – Natus Vincere | Natus Vincere | 1.64 | 50 | won | +32 | 1134 |
| 24.09.26 | Team Yandex – 1w Team | Team Yandex | 1.82 | 48 | won | +39 | 1102 |
| 24.09.26 | Yellow Submarine – Team Lynx | Yellow Submarine | 1.81 | 46 | won | +38 | 1062 |
| 22.09.26 | avice Team – Daxak Team | Daxak Team | 1.66 | 45 | won | +30 | 1025 |
| 22.09.26 | Team Spirit Academy – Nemiga Gaming | Team Spirit Academy | 1.58 | 47 | lost | -47 | 995 |
| 21.09.26 | YBN Team – NS Team | YBN Team | 1.83 | 50 | lost | -50 | 1042 |
| 21.09.26 | GamerLegion – Pipsqueak+4 | Pipsqueak+4 | 1.87 | 52 | lost | -52 | 1092 |
| 20.09.26 | Inner Circle – Yellow Submarine | Yellow Submarine | 1.65 | 51 | won | +33 | 1144 |
| 20.09.26 | PlayTime – Team Cobra | Team Cobra | 1.89 | 48 | won | +43 | 1111 |
| 20.09.26 | Conventus Stellarum – Xtreme Gaming | Conventus Stellarum | 1.89 | 51 | lost | -51 | 1068 |
| 19.09.26 | LGD Gaming – Yakult Brothers | Yakult Brothers | 1.82 | 54 | lost | -54 | 1119 |
| 16.09.26 | Inner Circle – uralan | uralan | 1.87 | 51 | won | +45 | 1173 |
| 12.09.26 | Team Nemesis – InterActive Philippines | Team Nemesis | 1.82 | 49 | won | +41 | 1128 |
| 08.09.26 | MOUZ – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 1.82 | 48 | won | +39 | 1087 |
| 07.09.26 | GamerLegion – Pipsqueak+4 | Pipsqueak+4 | 1.81 | 50 | lost | -50 | 1048 |
| 30.08.26 | Natus Vincere – MOUZ | MOUZ | 1.88 | 58 | lost | -58 | 1098 |
| 29.08.26 | Klim Sani4 – Team Spirit Academy | Klim Sani4 | 1.77 | 56 | won | +43 | 1156 |
| 29.08.26 | DYNASTY – Nemiga Gaming | DYNASTY | 1.53 | 54 | won | +29 | 1113 |
| 24.08.26 | Klim Sani4 – Team Lynx | Klim Sani4 | 1.89 | 52 | won | +46 | 1085 |
| 23.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Spirit | Team Spirit | 1.77 | 50 | won | +39 | 1039 |
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.