Always the favorite
Bets the favorite of every match — the team with the lower odds. A simple baseline: hits often, but the low odds usually leave profit small or negative after the margin over the long run.
profit
+47u
ROI
+13%
win rate
64%
bets
36
drawdown
4.7%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Always the favorite
payments
Stake size
Flat (10 units)
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3top-up-17u
period 2profit withdrawn+41u
period 1profit withdrawn+23u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% of bankroll | 36 | 64% | +444 | +12.1% | 27.8% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 36 | 64% | +230 | +12.6% | 18% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 36 | 64% | +93 | +12.9% | 8.7% | Select |
| Martingale | 36 | 64% | +64 | +6.2% | 27.7% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 36 | 64% | +47 | +13% | 4.7% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 36 | 64% | +47 | +13% | 4.6% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 36, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.10.26 | Nemiga Gaming – Dawn Bulls | Dawn Bulls | 1.35 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1047 |
| 13.10.26 | Dawn Bulls – Team Spirit Academy | Dawn Bulls | 1.54 | 10 | won | +5 | 1057 |
| 13.10.26 | Power Rangers – The WarriorsQ | Power Rangers | 1.82 | 10 | won | +8 | 1052 |
| 13.10.26 | Cloud Rising – Cloud Dawning | Cloud Rising | 1.82 | 10 | won | +8 | 1043 |
| 11.10.26 | Team Spirit – PARIVISION | Team Spirit | 1.70 | 10 | won | +7 | 1035 |
| 09.10.26 | Aurora Gaming – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.87 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1028 |
| 08.10.26 | Team Yandex – LGD Gaming | Team Yandex | 1.69 | 10 | won | +7 | 1038 |
| 06.10.26 | HULIGANI – CyberHero | CyberHero | 1.72 | 10 | won | +7 | 1031 |
| 03.10.26 | Team Spirit – Team Yandex | Team Yandex | 1.75 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1024 |
| 03.10.26 | Daxak Team – Cake Team | Daxak Team | 1.66 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1034 |
| 02.10.26 | 1w Team – Team Nemesis | Team Nemesis | 1.76 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1044 |
| 02.10.26 | LGD Gaming – Xtreme Gaming | Xtreme Gaming | 1.85 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1054 |
| 30.09.26 | PARIVISION – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.74 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1064 |
| 27.09.26 | avice Team – Cake Team | Cake Team | 1.82 | 10 | won | +8 | 1074 |
| 27.09.26 | LGD Gaming – Natus Vincere | Natus Vincere | 1.53 | 10 | won | +5 | 1066 |
| 26.09.26 | Rostik Team – avice Team | Rostik Team | 1.86 | 10 | won | +9 | 1060 |
| 25.09.26 | Team Nemesis – Natus Vincere | Natus Vincere | 1.64 | 10 | won | +6 | 1052 |
| 24.09.26 | Team Yandex – 1w Team | Team Yandex | 1.82 | 10 | won | +8 | 1045 |
| 24.09.26 | Yellow Submarine – Team Lynx | Yellow Submarine | 1.81 | 10 | won | +8 | 1037 |
| 22.09.26 | Team Spirit Academy – Nemiga Gaming | Team Spirit Academy | 1.58 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1029 |
| 22.09.26 | avice Team – Daxak Team | Daxak Team | 1.66 | 10 | won | +7 | 1039 |
| 21.09.26 | YBN Team – NS Team | YBN Team | 1.83 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1032 |
| 21.09.26 | Aurora Gaming – Team Cobra | Aurora Gaming | 1.87 | 10 | won | +9 | 1042 |
| 20.09.26 | Inner Circle – Yellow Submarine | Yellow Submarine | 1.65 | 10 | won | +6 | 1034 |
| 20.09.26 | PlayTime – Team Cobra | Team Cobra | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1027 |
| 20.09.26 | Conventus Stellarum – Xtreme Gaming | Conventus Stellarum | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1018 |
| 19.09.26 | LGD Gaming – Yakult Brothers | Yakult Brothers | 1.82 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1028 |
| 16.09.26 | Inner Circle – uralan | uralan | 1.87 | 10 | won | +9 | 1038 |
| 12.09.26 | Team Nemesis – InterActive Philippines | Team Nemesis | 1.82 | 10 | won | +8 | 1030 |
| 08.09.26 | MOUZ – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 1.82 | 10 | won | +8 | 1021 |
| 07.09.26 | GamerLegion – Pipsqueak+4 | Pipsqueak+4 | 1.81 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1013 |
| 30.08.26 | Natus Vincere – MOUZ | MOUZ | 1.88 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1023 |
| 29.08.26 | Klim Sani4 – Team Spirit Academy | Klim Sani4 | 1.77 | 10 | won | +8 | 1033 |
| 29.08.26 | Team Resilience – Animals Incoming | Team Resilience | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1025 |
| 24.08.26 | Klim Sani4 – Team Lynx | Klim Sani4 | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1017 |
| 23.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Spirit | Team Spirit | 1.77 | 10 | won | +8 | 1008 |
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.