Always the favorite
Bets the favorite of every match — the team with the lower odds. A simple baseline: hits often, but the low odds usually leave profit small or negative after the margin over the long run.
profit
+311u
ROI
+21.1%
win rate
69%
bets
32
drawdown
14.8%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Always the favorite
💰
Stake size
Quarter Kelly
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25profit withdrawn+146u
period 24profit withdrawn+9u
period 23profit withdrawn+0u
period 22top-up-91u
period 21profit withdrawn+0u
period 20profit withdrawn+151u
period 19top-up-20u
period 18profit withdrawn+15u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% of bankroll | 1259 | 95% | +5393 | +3.9% | 20.1% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 1259 | 95% | +2599 | +3.9% | 12.8% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 1259 | 95% | +1016 | +4% | 6.4% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 1259 | 95% | +504 | +4% | 3.8% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 1259 | 95% | +500 | +4% | 3.8% | Select |
| Martingale | 1259 | 95% | +487 | +3.7% | 5.1% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 32 | 69% | +311 | +21.1% | 14.8% | Selected |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 32, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06.08.26 | No Hoodwink – Level UP | No Hoodwink | 1.60 | 46 | lost | -46 | 1311 |
| 02.08.26 | Team Liquid – LGD Gaming | Team Liquid | 2.50 | 90 | won | +135 | 1357 |
| 02.08.26 | Vici Gaming – OG | Vici Gaming | 2.15 | 50 | won | +57 | 1222 |
| 31.07.26 | LGD Gaming – GamerLegion | LGD Gaming | 2.00 | 66 | won | +66 | 1164 |
| 21.07.26 | Team Lynx – Team Spirit Academy | Team Lynx | 1.52 | 57 | lost | -57 | 1098 |
| 29.05.26 | Tundra Esports – GLYPH | Tundra Esports | 1.45 | 66 | won | +30 | 1155 |
| 27.05.26 | GLYPH – Team Liquid | Team Liquid | 1.55 | 83 | won | +46 | 1126 |
| 27.05.26 | PARIVISION – BETBOOM Team | PARIVISION | 1.55 | 5 | won | +3 | 1080 |
| 26.05.26 | PARIVISION – OG | PARIVISION | 1.22 | 20 | won | +4 | 1077 |
| 20.05.26 | Team Liquid – Xtreme Gaming | Team Liquid | 1.80 | 73 | lost | -73 | 1073 |
| 08.05.26 | Tundra Esports – 1w Team | Tundra Esports | 1.78 | 100 | lost | -100 | 1146 |
| 25.03.26 | Team Spirit – Nigma Galaxy | Team Spirit | 2.50 | 100 | won | +150 | 1246 |
| 08.03.26 | Xtreme Gaming – Team Nemesis | Xtreme Gaming | 1.32 | 3 | won | +1 | 1096 |
| 18.02.26 | MOUZ – Execration | MOUZ | 1.55 | 46 | won | +25 | 1095 |
| 04.02.26 | Team Falcons – Team Liquid | Team Falcons | 1.62 | 45 | lost | -45 | 1070 |
| 30.01.26 | Power Rangers – BETBOOM Team | BETBOOM Team | 1.42 | 36 | won | +15 | 1114 |
| 10.11.25 | Zero Tenacity – Most Wanted | Most Wanted | 1.65 | 8 | lost | -8 | 1099 |
| 07.11.25 | Most Wanted – Team Tidebound | Team Tidebound | 1.45 | 14 | won | +6 | 1108 |
| 04.11.25 | Team Public – Team Tidebound | Team Tidebound | 1.52 | 77 | won | +40 | 1101 |
| 15.10.25 | BETBOOM Team – Aurora Gaming | BETBOOM Team | 1.90 | 64 | lost | -64 | 1061 |
| 26.09.25 | Zero Tenacity – Pipsqueak+4 | Pipsqueak+4 | 1.75 | 8 | won | +6 | 1125 |
| 21.08.25 | OG – Passion UA | Passion UA | 1.82 | 27 | lost | -27 | 1119 |
| 09.07.25 | PARIVISION – Team Liquid | PARIVISION | 3.10 | 100 | lost | -100 | 1145 |
| 21.05.25 | PARIVISION – AVULUS | PARIVISION | 1.32 | 46 | won | +15 | 1245 |
| 06.05.25 | PARIVISION – Aurora Gaming | PARIVISION | 1.50 | 76 | won | +38 | 1231 |
| 25.01.25 | Night Pulse – Jigglin | Night Pulse | 1.85 | 29 | lost | -29 | 1193 |
| 18.01.25 | Tundra Esports – Team Secret | Tundra Esports | 1.48 | 23 | won | +11 | 1222 |
| 12.12.24 | Natus Vincere Junior – AnimeVesta | Natus Vincere Junior | 1.48 | 5 | won | +3 | 1211 |
| 04.11.24 | Team Spirit – Looking for Org | Team Spirit | 1.55 | 8 | won | +4 | 1208 |
| 24.09.24 | Team Hryvnia – Palianytsia | Palianytsia | 1.85 | 8 | won | +6 | 1204 |
| 04.09.24 | G2 Invictus Gaming – Talon Esports | G2 Invictus Gaming | 2.40 | 16 | won | +23 | 1198 |
| 04.09.24 | Xtreme Gaming – Heroic | Xtreme Gaming | 3.40 | 73 | won | +175 | 1175 |
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.