Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-1949u
ROI
-48.2%
win rate
38%
bets
87
drawdown
194.9%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
💰
Stake size
Martingale
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25profit withdrawn+0u
period 24profit withdrawn+0u
period 23profit withdrawn+0u
period 22profit withdrawn+0u
period 21profit withdrawn+0u
period 20profit withdrawn+0u
period 19profit withdrawn+0u
period 18profit withdrawn+0u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 87 | 38% | -1949 | -48.2% | 194.9% | Selected |
| 1% of bankroll | 494 | 37% | -2627 | -56.1% | 262.7% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 494 | 37% | -2776 | -56.2% | 277.6% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 494 | 37% | -4977 | -56.1% | 497.6% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 494 | 37% | -10630 | -55.9% | 1062.5% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 300 | 2% | -14096 | -97.5% | 1409.6% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 494 | 37% | -16663 | -55.5% | 1664.8% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 87, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18.12.24 | AVULUS – Dragon Esports | Dragon Esports | 13.00 | 383 | lost | -383 | -949 |
| 17.12.24 | Dragon Esports – Zero Tenacity | Zero Tenacity | 6.60 | 320 | lost | -320 | -566 |
| 15.12.24 | Dragon Esports – Habibis | Habibis | 5.80 | 160 | lost | -160 | -246 |
| 14.12.24 | Aurora Gaming – Team Secret | Team Secret | 13.00 | 80 | lost | -80 | -86 |
| 11.12.24 | Natus Vincere – Team Falcons | Natus Vincere | 5.50 | 40 | lost | -40 | -6 |
| 10.12.24 | Shopify Rebellion – Team Falcons | Shopify Rebellion | 15.00 | 20 | lost | -20 | 34 |
| 09.12.24 | Natus Vincere – Shopify Rebellion | Natus Vincere | 15.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 54 |
| 03.12.24 | Dragon Esports – Passion UA | Passion UA | 1.32 | 40 | won | +13 | 64 |
| 26.11.24 | Heroic – Team Falcons | Heroic | 8.00 | 20 | lost | -20 | 51 |
| 26.11.24 | Team Liquid – Gaimin Gladiators | Gaimin Gladiators | 7.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 71 |
| 25.11.24 | Zero Tenacity – Hydra | Zero Tenacity | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | 81 |
| 23.11.24 | Passion UA – Natus Vincere Junior | Passion UA | 1.28 | 320 | won | +90 | 81 |
| 21.11.24 | One Move – Nightshade | Nightshade | 12.00 | 160 | lost | -160 | -9 |
| 20.11.24 | L1ga Team – Passion UA | L1ga Team | 1.25 | 80 | lost | -80 | 151 |
| 20.11.24 | Team Golovach – Stray Team | Stray Team | 2.10 | 40 | lost | -40 | 231 |
| 20.11.24 | 1w Team – PARIVISION | 1w Team | 14.00 | 20 | lost | -20 | 271 |
| 19.11.24 | Stray Team – Team Ephey | Team Ephey | 13.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 291 |
| 19.11.24 | One Move – Natus Vincere Junior | One Move | 1.65 | 40 | won | +26 | 301 |
| 19.11.24 | YBN Team – Team Ephey | YBN Team | 13.00 | 20 | lost | -20 | 275 |
| 19.11.24 | Gaimin Gladiators – Team Secret | Team Secret | 2.80 | 10 | lost | -10 | 295 |
| 18.11.24 | Кыргызстан – Швеция | Швеция | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | 305 |
| 17.11.24 | Stray Team – YBN Team | Stray Team | 1.02 | 20 | won | +0 | 305 |
| 17.11.24 | Stariy_bog Team – Team Golovach | Stariy_bog Team | 12.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 305 |
| 17.11.24 | Египет – Болгария | Болгария | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | 315 |
| 17.11.24 | Xtreme Gaming – Yakult Brothers | Xtreme Gaming | 1.01 | 20 | won | +0 | 315 |
| 17.11.24 | Atlantic City – Shopify Rebellion | Shopify Rebellion | 2.50 | 10 | lost | -10 | 315 |
| 16.11.24 | Blade breakers – Infinity Esports | Infinity Esports | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | 325 |
| 16.11.24 | Болгария – Мьянма | Мьянма | 1.78 | 160 | won | +125 | 325 |
| 16.11.24 | Монголия – США | США | 9.00 | 80 | lost | -80 | 200 |
| 16.11.24 | Team Аналитика Ошибок – GoodWin Team | GoodWin Team | 1.85 | 40 | lost | -40 | 280 |
| 16.11.24 | Саудовская Аравия – Венесуэла | Венесуэла | 1.25 | 20 | lost | -20 | 320 |
| 16.11.24 | Кыргызстан – Аргентина | Аргентина | 4.50 | 10 | lost | -10 | 340 |
| 15.11.24 | Tundra Esports – AVULUS | AVULUS | 1.26 | 40 | won | +10 | 350 |
| 05.11.24 | Team Liquid – Looking for Org | Looking for Org | 7.50 | 20 | lost | -20 | 339 |
| 04.11.24 | Team Spirit – Looking for Org | Looking for Org | 2.40 | 10 | lost | -10 | 359 |
| 01.11.24 | Xtreme Gaming – Looking for Org | Looking for Org | 1.98 | 40 | won | +39 | 369 |
| 29.10.24 | Team Falcons – Talon Esports | Talon Esports | 13.00 | 20 | lost | -20 | 330 |
| 28.10.24 | Team Falcons – Heroic | Heroic | 15.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 350 |
| 28.10.24 | Talon Esports – Azure Ray | Talon Esports | 1.06 | 20 | won | +1 | 360 |
| 28.10.24 | nouns – PARIVISION | nouns | 15.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 359 |
| 27.10.24 | Palianytsia – Talon Esports | Talon Esports | 1.01 | 40 | won | +0 | 369 |
| 24.10.24 | BETBOOM Team – Tundra Esports | BETBOOM Team | 7.50 | 20 | lost | -20 | 369 |
| 23.10.24 | PARIVISION – AVULUS | PARIVISION | 11.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 389 |
| 23.10.24 | Level UP – Infinity Esports | Level UP | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | 399 |
| 19.10.24 | BETBOOM Team – MOUZ | BETBOOM Team | 1.01 | 20 | won | +0 | 398 |
| 14.10.24 | DMS – Passion UA | Passion UA | 13.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 398 |
| 11.10.24 | Tundra Esports – Heroic | Heroic | 1.35 | 80 | won | +28 | 408 |
| 10.10.24 | Dragon Esports – Quantum Team | Quantum Team | 5.30 | 40 | lost | -40 | 380 |
| 10.10.24 | Tundra Esports – Natus Vincere | Natus Vincere | 13.00 | 20 | lost | -20 | 420 |
| 08.10.24 | Alliance – Natus Vincere | Alliance | 9.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 440 |
| 07.10.24 | nouns – MOUZ | nouns | 1.01 | 320 | won | +3 | 450 |
| 04.10.24 | Tundra Esports – Looking for Org | Looking for Org | 11.00 | 160 | lost | -160 | 447 |
| 04.10.24 | Heroic – Natus Vincere | Natus Vincere | 7.00 | 80 | lost | -80 | 607 |
| 04.10.24 | AVULUS – beastcoast | beastcoast | 14.00 | 40 | lost | -40 | 687 |
| 01.10.24 | beastcoast – Looking for Org | beastcoast | 11.00 | 20 | lost | -20 | 727 |
| 30.09.24 | Team Spirit – L1ga Team | L1ga Team | 6.60 | 10 | lost | -10 | 747 |
| 30.09.24 | Aurora Gaming – BOOM Esports | Aurora Gaming | 1.04 | 40 | won | +2 | 757 |
| 29.09.24 | Looking for Org – Dibujitos de fb | Dibujitos de fb | 10.00 | 20 | lost | -20 | 755 |
| 29.09.24 | BOOM Esports – Bruv123 | Bruv123 | 2.40 | 10 | lost | -10 | 775 |
| 29.09.24 | Night Pulse – One Move | Night Pulse | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | 785 |
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.