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Model underdog (Elo)

D2Dota 210% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-593u
ROI
-17.5%
win rate
42%
bets
36
drawdown
78.5%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

10% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3profit withdrawn+138u
period 2top-up-446u
period 1top-up-286u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
1% of bankroll3642%-61-17.1%9%Select
Flat (10 units)3642%-61-17.1%9.1%Select
Martingale3642%-64-3.4%60%Select
2% of bankroll3642%-123-17.2%17.7%Select
5% of bankroll3642%-304-17.4%42.5%Select
10% of bankroll3642%-593-17.5%78.5%Selected
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 36, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
13.10.26Stray Team – Stariy_bog TeamStray Team1.89105won+93407
13.10.26CyberHero – Shadow DanceCyberHero1.9096won+86313
13.10.26Dawn Bulls – Team Spirit AcademyTeam Spirit Academy2.43107lost-107227
13.10.26Cloud Rising – Cloud DawningCloud Dawning1.95118lost-118334
11.10.26Team Spirit – PARIVISIONPARIVISION2.12132lost-132452
09.10.26Aurora Gaming – LGD GamingAurora Gaming1.91121won+109584
08.10.26Team Yandex – LGD GamingLGD Gaming2.13134lost-134475
06.10.26HULIGANI – CyberHeroHULIGANI2.08149lost-149609
03.10.26Team Spirit – Team YandexTeam Spirit2.05135won+142758
03.10.26Daxak Team – Cake TeamCake Team2.19120won+143616
02.10.261w Team – Team Nemesis1w Team2.03109won+112473
02.10.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingLGD Gaming1.92100won+92360
30.09.26PARIVISION – LGD GamingPARIVISION2.0750won+53268
27.09.26avice Team – Cake Teamavice Team1.9556lost-56215
27.09.26LGD Gaming – Natus VincereLGD Gaming2.4662lost-62271
26.09.26Rostik Team – avice Teamavice Team1.9269lost-69332
25.09.26Team Nemesis – Natus VincereTeam Nemesis2.2176lost-76401
24.09.26Team Yandex – 1w Team1w Team1.9685lost-85477
24.09.26Yellow Submarine – Team LynxTeam Lynx1.9794lost-94562
22.09.26Team Spirit Academy – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming2.3583won+112656
22.09.26avice Team – Daxak Teamavice Team2.1892lost-92544
21.09.26YBN Team – NS TeamNS Team1.9584won+80637
21.09.26GamerLegion – Pipsqueak+4GamerLegion1.9077won+70556
20.09.26Inner Circle – Yellow SubmarineInner Circle2.2186lost-86487
20.09.26Conventus Stellarum – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming1.8979won+70573
20.09.26PlayTime – Team CobraPlayTime1.8988lost-88503
19.09.26LGD Gaming – Yakult BrothersLGD Gaming1.9580won+76590
16.09.26Inner Circle – uralanInner Circle1.9089lost-89514
12.09.26Team Nemesis – InterActive PhilippinesInterActive Philippines1.9599lost-99603
08.09.26MOUZ – GamerLegionMOUZ1.96110lost-110702
07.09.26GamerLegion – Pipsqueak+4GamerLegion1.97100won+97811
30.08.26Natus Vincere – MOUZNatus Vincere1.8966won+58714
29.08.26Klim Sani4 – Team Spirit AcademyTeam Spirit Academy2.0273lost-73656
29.08.26DYNASTY – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming2.4781lost-81729
24.08.26Klim Sani4 – Team LynxTeam Lynx1.8990lost-90810
23.08.26PARIVISION – Team SpiritPARIVISION2.02100lost-100900
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.