Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-10630u
ROI
-55.9%
win rate
37%
bets
494
drawdown
1062.5%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
💰
Stake size
5% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-218u
period 24top-up-444u
period 23top-up-471u
period 22top-up-507u
period 21top-up-560u
period 20top-up-535u
period 19top-up-367u
period 18top-up-586u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 87 | 38% | -1949 | -48.2% | 194.9% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 494 | 37% | -2627 | -56.1% | 262.7% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 494 | 37% | -2776 | -56.2% | 277.6% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 494 | 37% | -4977 | -56.1% | 497.6% | Selected |
| 5% of bankroll | 494 | 37% | -10630 | -55.9% | 1062.5% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 300 | 2% | -14096 | -97.5% | 1409.6% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 494 | 37% | -16663 | -55.5% | 1664.8% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 494, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.08.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 15.00 | 41 | lost | -41 | -9630 |
| 13.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Resilience | Team Resilience | 15.00 | 43 | lost | -43 | -9589 |
| 03.08.26 | Team Liquid – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 10.00 | 46 | lost | -46 | -9546 |
| 03.08.26 | GLYPH – PlayTime | GLYPH | 14.00 | 48 | lost | -48 | -9500 |
| 02.08.26 | Vici Gaming – OG | OG | 13.00 | 50 | lost | -50 | -9452 |
| 01.08.26 | NS Team – VooDooSh Team | NS Team | 1.20 | 50 | won | +10 | -9402 |
| 31.07.26 | BETBOOM Team – Team Liquid | Team Liquid | 1.17 | 28 | won | +5 | -9412 |
| 31.07.26 | Yakult Brothers – Zero Tenacity | Yakult Brothers | 14.00 | 29 | lost | -29 | -9416 |
| 31.07.26 | Amaru Gaming – Vici Gaming | Amaru Gaming | 11.00 | 31 | lost | -31 | -9387 |
| 30.07.26 | Ilbirs eSports – Amaru Gaming | Amaru Gaming | 3.00 | 32 | lost | -32 | -9357 |
| 30.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 1.01 | 32 | won | +0 | -9325 |
| 30.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – 1w Team | 1w Team | 1.12 | 32 | won | +4 | -9325 |
| 29.07.26 | Rostik Team – TpaBoMaH Team | TpaBoMaH Team | 1.02 | 32 | won | +1 | -9329 |
| 28.07.26 | NS Team – TpaBoMaH Team | TpaBoMaH Team | 1.01 | 32 | won | +0 | -9329 |
| 27.07.26 | NS Team – Rostik Team | NS Team | 1.25 | 32 | won | +8 | -9330 |
| 24.07.26 | Nemiga Gaming – Ilbirs eSports | Nemiga Gaming | 1.80 | 33 | lost | -33 | -9338 |
| 20.07.26 | Zero Tenacity – Nemiga Gaming | Nemiga Gaming | 3.60 | 35 | lost | -35 | -9304 |
| 17.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – BETBOOM Team | Nigma Galaxy | 15.00 | 37 | lost | -37 | -9269 |
| 12.07.26 | REKONIX – Team Nemesis | REKONIX | 1.01 | 37 | won | +0 | -9233 |
| 11.07.26 | PlayTime – Nigma Galaxy | PlayTime | 5.80 | 39 | lost | -39 | -9233 |
| 10.07.26 | REKONIX – Team Spirit | REKONIX | 15.00 | 41 | lost | -41 | -9194 |
| 08.07.26 | Team Yandex – Inner Circle | Inner Circle | 15.00 | 43 | lost | -43 | -9154 |
| 08.07.26 | GamerLegion – Xtreme Gaming | GamerLegion | 15.00 | 45 | lost | -45 | -9111 |
| 08.07.26 | Poor Rangers – BETBOOM Team | Poor Rangers | 15.00 | 48 | lost | -48 | -9066 |
| 07.07.26 | Inner Circle – 1w Team | Inner Circle | 15.00 | 50 | lost | -50 | -9018 |
| 28.06.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Yellow Submarine | Yellow Submarine | 5.80 | 28 | lost | -28 | -8968 |
| 28.06.26 | By_Owl Team – ALOHADANCE Team | ALOHADANCE Team | 13.00 | 29 | lost | -29 | -8940 |
| 27.06.26 | Natus Vincere – L1ga Team | L1ga Team | 1.60 | 28 | won | +17 | -8911 |
| 25.06.26 | Team Spirit – Nigma Galaxy | Nigma Galaxy | 12.00 | 30 | lost | -30 | -8928 |
| 24.06.26 | Recrent Team – Stray Team | Stray Team | 1.02 | 30 | won | +1 | -8898 |
| 24.06.26 | Dread Team – DangerLyoha Team | DangerLyoha Team | 3.20 | 31 | lost | -31 | -8899 |
| 21.06.26 | InterActive Philippines – Mentality Monster | InterActive Philippines | 10.00 | 33 | lost | -33 | -8867 |
| 21.06.26 | Grind Back – Carstensz Esports | Carstensz Esports | 13.00 | 35 | lost | -35 | -8834 |
| 19.06.26 | summer bear – Power Rangers | summer bear | 13.00 | 37 | lost | -37 | -8799 |
| 17.06.26 | Power Rangers – Flame Esports | Flame Esports | 12.00 | 39 | lost | -39 | -8763 |
| 16.06.26 | Flame Esports – Team Spirit Academy | Team Spirit Academy | 1.20 | 38 | won | +8 | -8724 |
| 13.06.26 | Estar Backs – Gior Dota Team | Estar Backs | 1.03 | 38 | won | +1 | -8732 |
| 11.06.26 | Phenomenon – NA Last Hope | NA Last Hope | 1.35 | 40 | lost | -40 | -8733 |
| 11.06.26 | Team Nemesis – Gior Dota Team | Gior Dota Team | 12.00 | 42 | lost | -42 | -8692 |
| 10.06.26 | L1ga Team – Zero Tenacity | Zero Tenacity | 11.00 | 45 | lost | -45 | -8650 |
| 07.06.26 | BETBOOM Team – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.65 | 43 | won | +28 | -8606 |
| 06.06.26 | Ramzes Club – TpaBoMaH Club | TpaBoMaH Club | 3.10 | 45 | lost | -45 | -8634 |
| 05.06.26 | LGD Gaming – Team Liquid | LGD Gaming | 1.03 | 45 | won | +1 | -8588 |
| 05.06.26 | Execration – REKONIX | Execration | 13.00 | 48 | lost | -48 | -8589 |
| 04.06.26 | Carstensz Esports – REKONIX | Carstensz Esports | 12.00 | 50 | lost | -50 | -8542 |
| 02.06.26 | L1ga Team – Poor Rangers | Poor Rangers | 1.02 | 50 | won | +1 | -8491 |
| 02.06.26 | LGD Gaming – Natus Vincere | LGD Gaming | 1.01 | 50 | won | +1 | -8492 |
| 01.06.26 | Ramzes Club – TpaBoMaH Club | Ramzes Club | 1.08 | 50 | won | +4 | -8493 |
| 30.05.26 | Team Spirit – OG | OG | 15.00 | 26 | lost | -26 | -8497 |
| 29.05.26 | Team Yandex – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.45 | 25 | won | +11 | -8471 |
| 28.05.26 | NS Club – Ramzes Club | NS Club | 5.30 | 27 | lost | -27 | -8482 |
| 27.05.26 | LGD Gaming – Team Liquid | LGD Gaming | 4.50 | 28 | lost | -28 | -8456 |
| 27.05.26 | OG – Team Yandex | OG | 15.00 | 30 | lost | -30 | -8428 |
| 26.05.26 | PARIVISION – Team Yandex | Team Yandex | 1.01 | 30 | won | +0 | -8398 |
| 26.05.26 | Team Falcons – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 5.00 | 31 | lost | -31 | -8398 |
| 26.05.26 | Team Liquid – Team Yandex | Team Yandex | 1.01 | 31 | won | +0 | -8367 |
| 26.05.26 | GLYPH – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.60 | 30 | won | +18 | -8368 |
| 24.05.26 | Recrent Team – Solo Team | Recrent Team | 12.00 | 32 | lost | -32 | -8386 |
| 23.05.26 | Miposhka Team – Stray Team | Stray Team | 1.03 | 32 | won | +1 | -8354 |
| 22.05.26 | Aurora Gaming – Tundra Esports | Tundra Esports | 11.00 | 33 | lost | -33 | -8355 |
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.