Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-1590u
ROI
-39.4%
win rate
31%
bets
68
drawdown
179.3%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
payments
Stake size
10% of bankroll
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3top-up-168u
period 2top-up-802u
period 1top-up-620u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% of bankroll | 68 | 31% | -229 | -35.8% | 25.9% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 68 | 31% | -239 | -35.2% | 27% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 68 | 31% | -440 | -36.3% | 49.6% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 68 | 31% | -969 | -37.7% | 109.6% | Select |
| Martingale | 7 | 0% | -1000 | -100% | 100% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 68 | 31% | -1590 | -39.4% | 179.3% | Selected |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 68, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.10.26 | Nemiga Gaming – Dawn Bulls | Nemiga Gaming | 3.13 | 69 | won | +146 | -590 |
| 13.10.26 | CyberHero – Shadow Dance | CyberHero | 1.90 | 63 | won | +56 | -736 |
| 13.10.26 | Power Rangers – The WarriorsQ | The WarriorsQ | 1.95 | 70 | lost | -70 | -793 |
| 13.10.26 | Cloud Rising – Cloud Dawning | Cloud Dawning | 1.95 | 78 | lost | -78 | -723 |
| 12.10.26 | The WarriorsQ – Dawn Bulls | The WarriorsQ | 2.11 | 86 | lost | -86 | -645 |
| 11.10.26 | Team Spirit – PARIVISION | PARIVISION | 2.12 | 96 | lost | -96 | -559 |
| 09.10.26 | Aurora Gaming – LGD Gaming | Aurora Gaming | 1.91 | 88 | won | +80 | -463 |
| 09.10.26 | Team Spirit – Aurora Gaming | Aurora Gaming | 2.14 | 98 | lost | -98 | -543 |
| 08.10.26 | Team Yandex – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 2.13 | 109 | lost | -109 | -445 |
| 06.10.26 | HULIGANI – CyberHero | HULIGANI | 2.08 | 121 | lost | -121 | -337 |
| 03.10.26 | Team Spirit – Team Yandex | Team Spirit | 2.05 | 109 | won | +115 | -216 |
| 03.10.26 | Daxak Team – Cake Team | Cake Team | 2.19 | 98 | won | +116 | -331 |
| 03.10.26 | LGD Gaming – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 1.92 | 108 | lost | -108 | -447 |
| 02.10.26 | 1w Team – Team Nemesis | 1w Team | 2.03 | 98 | won | +101 | -338 |
| 02.10.26 | LGD Gaming – Xtreme Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.92 | 90 | won | +83 | -439 |
| 01.10.26 | Aurora Gaming – Team Liquid | Team Liquid | 2.06 | 100 | lost | -100 | -522 |
| 30.09.26 | PARIVISION – LGD Gaming | PARIVISION | 2.07 | 18 | won | +19 | -422 |
| 30.09.26 | BETBOOM TEAM – OG | BETBOOM TEAM | 1.89 | 16 | won | +15 | -441 |
| 29.09.26 | 1w Team – Natus Vincere | 1w Team | 2.75 | 14 | won | +25 | -456 |
| 27.09.26 | avice Team – Cake Team | avice Team | 1.95 | 16 | lost | -16 | -480 |
| 27.09.26 | LGD Gaming – Natus Vincere | LGD Gaming | 2.46 | 17 | lost | -17 | -465 |
| 26.09.26 | Rostik Team – avice Team | avice Team | 1.92 | 19 | lost | -19 | -448 |
| 25.09.26 | Team Synapse – Yellow Submarine | Team Synapse | 2.43 | 17 | won | +24 | -428 |
| 25.09.26 | Solo Team – avice Team | Solo Team | 1.96 | 19 | lost | -19 | -452 |
| 25.09.26 | Team Nemesis – Natus Vincere | Team Nemesis | 2.21 | 21 | lost | -21 | -434 |
| 24.09.26 | TpaBoMaH Team – Stray Team | Stray Team | 1.90 | 23 | lost | -23 | -413 |
| 24.09.26 | Team Yandex – 1w Team | 1w Team | 1.96 | 26 | lost | -26 | -390 |
| 24.09.26 | Yellow Submarine – Team Lynx | Team Lynx | 1.97 | 28 | lost | -28 | -365 |
| 24.09.26 | Two Move – Team Lynx | Two Move | 1.99 | 32 | lost | -32 | -336 |
| 24.09.26 | Daxak Team – gpK~ Team | gpK~ Team | 2.54 | 35 | lost | -35 | -305 |
| 24.09.26 | YBN Team – Rostik Team | YBN Team | 2.10 | 39 | lost | -39 | -269 |
| 22.09.26 | avice Team – Daxak Team | avice Team | 2.18 | 43 | lost | -43 | -230 |
| 22.09.26 | Team Spirit Academy – Nemiga Gaming | Nemiga Gaming | 2.35 | 38 | won | +51 | -187 |
| 22.09.26 | Natus Vincere – 1w Team | 1w Team | 2.37 | 42 | lost | -42 | -239 |
| 22.09.26 | Team Nemesis – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 2.06 | 38 | won | +41 | -196 |
| 21.09.26 | YBN Team – NS Team | NS Team | 1.95 | 35 | won | +33 | -237 |
| 21.09.26 | Solo Team – Daxak Team | Solo Team | 2.11 | 39 | lost | -39 | -270 |
| 21.09.26 | Team Nemesis – MOUZ | MOUZ | 2.22 | 43 | lost | -43 | -231 |
| 21.09.26 | Nemiga Gaming – Kalmychata | Nemiga Gaming | 2.41 | 48 | lost | -48 | -188 |
| 21.09.26 | GamerLegion – Pipsqueak+4 | GamerLegion | 1.90 | 44 | won | +40 | -140 |
| 20.09.26 | Inner Circle – Yellow Submarine | Inner Circle | 2.21 | 49 | lost | -49 | -180 |
| 20.09.26 | PlayTime – Team Cobra | PlayTime | 1.89 | 54 | lost | -54 | -131 |
| 20.09.26 | Conventus Stellarum – Xtreme Gaming | Xtreme Gaming | 1.89 | 50 | won | +44 | -76 |
| 19.09.26 | LGD Gaming – Yakult Brothers | LGD Gaming | 1.95 | 46 | won | +44 | -121 |
| 18.09.26 | uralan – Two Move | uralan | 1.89 | 51 | lost | -51 | -164 |
| 18.09.26 | Team Spirit Academy – Yellow Submarine | Team Spirit Academy | 1.99 | 56 | lost | -56 | -114 |
| 17.09.26 | Kalmychata – uralan | Kalmychata | 1.95 | 51 | won | +49 | -57 |
| 17.09.26 | Nemiga Gaming – Team Lynx | Nemiga Gaming | 2.25 | 57 | lost | -57 | -106 |
| 16.09.26 | Inner Circle – uralan | Inner Circle | 1.90 | 63 | lost | -63 | -49 |
| 13.09.26 | Recrent Team – Stariy_Bog Club | Recrent Team | 2.02 | 71 | lost | -71 | 14 |
| 12.09.26 | Team Nemesis – InterActive Philippines | InterActive Philippines | 1.95 | 78 | lost | -78 | 85 |
| 10.09.26 | Recrent Team – Daxak Team | Daxak Team | 1.89 | 72 | won | +64 | 163 |
| 09.09.26 | Klim Sani4 – Inner Circle | Inner Circle | 2.06 | 80 | lost | -80 | 99 |
| 09.09.26 | Natus Vincere – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 1.96 | 89 | lost | -89 | 179 |
| 08.09.26 | MOUZ – GamerLegion | MOUZ | 1.96 | 99 | lost | -99 | 268 |
| 07.09.26 | GamerLegion – Pipsqueak+4 | GamerLegion | 1.97 | 90 | won | +87 | 367 |
| 01.09.26 | Zero Tenacity – Team Spirit Academy | Team Spirit Academy | 1.95 | 100 | lost | -100 | 280 |
| 30.08.26 | Natus Vincere – MOUZ | Natus Vincere | 1.89 | 35 | won | +31 | 380 |
| 29.08.26 | Klim Sani4 – Team Spirit Academy | Team Spirit Academy | 2.02 | 39 | lost | -39 | 349 |
| 29.08.26 | MOUZ – Yellow Submarine | Yellow Submarine | 1.89 | 43 | lost | -43 | 387 |
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.