Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-264u
ROI
-41.6%
win rate
28%
bets
68
drawdown
28.4%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
payments
Stake size
1% of bankroll
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3top-up-28u
period 2top-up-148u
period 1top-up-88u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% of bankroll | 68 | 28% | -264 | -41.6% | 28.4% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 68 | 28% | -277 | -40.8% | 29.8% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 68 | 28% | -504 | -42.5% | 54.2% | Select |
| Martingale | 7 | 0% | -1000 | -100% | 100% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 68 | 28% | -1097 | -44.6% | 117.9% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 68 | 28% | -1770 | -47% | 189% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 68, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.10.26 | Nemiga Gaming – Dawn Bulls | Nemiga Gaming | 3.13 | 10 | won | +20 | 736 |
| 13.10.26 | Power Rangers – The WarriorsQ | The WarriorsQ | 1.95 | 10 | lost | -10 | 716 |
| 13.10.26 | Dawn Bulls – Team Spirit Academy | Team Spirit Academy | 2.43 | 10 | lost | -10 | 725 |
| 13.10.26 | Cloud Rising – Cloud Dawning | Cloud Dawning | 1.95 | 10 | lost | -10 | 735 |
| 12.10.26 | The WarriorsQ – Dawn Bulls | The WarriorsQ | 2.11 | 10 | lost | -10 | 745 |
| 11.10.26 | Team Spirit – PARIVISION | PARIVISION | 2.12 | 10 | lost | -10 | 755 |
| 09.10.26 | Aurora Gaming – LGD Gaming | Aurora Gaming | 1.91 | 10 | won | +9 | 765 |
| 09.10.26 | Team Spirit – Aurora Gaming | Aurora Gaming | 2.14 | 10 | lost | -10 | 756 |
| 08.10.26 | Team Yandex – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 2.13 | 10 | lost | -10 | 766 |
| 06.10.26 | HULIGANI – CyberHero | HULIGANI | 2.08 | 10 | lost | -10 | 776 |
| 03.10.26 | Team Spirit – Team Yandex | Team Spirit | 2.05 | 10 | won | +11 | 786 |
| 03.10.26 | Daxak Team – Cake Team | Cake Team | 2.19 | 10 | won | +12 | 775 |
| 03.10.26 | LGD Gaming – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 1.92 | 10 | lost | -10 | 763 |
| 02.10.26 | LGD Gaming – Xtreme Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.92 | 10 | won | +9 | 773 |
| 02.10.26 | 1w Team – Team Nemesis | 1w Team | 2.03 | 10 | won | +10 | 764 |
| 01.10.26 | Aurora Gaming – Team Liquid | Team Liquid | 2.06 | 10 | lost | -10 | 754 |
| 30.09.26 | PARIVISION – LGD Gaming | PARIVISION | 2.07 | 8 | won | +9 | 764 |
| 30.09.26 | BETBOOM TEAM – OG | BETBOOM TEAM | 1.89 | 8 | won | +7 | 755 |
| 29.09.26 | 1w Team – Natus Vincere | 1w Team | 2.75 | 8 | won | +14 | 748 |
| 27.09.26 | avice Team – Cake Team | avice Team | 1.95 | 8 | lost | -8 | 733 |
| 27.09.26 | LGD Gaming – Natus Vincere | LGD Gaming | 2.46 | 8 | lost | -8 | 742 |
| 26.09.26 | Rostik Team – avice Team | avice Team | 1.92 | 8 | lost | -8 | 750 |
| 25.09.26 | Team Synapse – Yellow Submarine | Team Synapse | 2.43 | 8 | won | +12 | 758 |
| 25.09.26 | Solo Team – avice Team | Solo Team | 1.96 | 8 | lost | -8 | 746 |
| 25.09.26 | Team Nemesis – Natus Vincere | Team Nemesis | 2.21 | 9 | lost | -9 | 755 |
| 24.09.26 | TpaBoMaH Team – Stray Team | Stray Team | 1.90 | 9 | lost | -9 | 763 |
| 24.09.26 | Team Yandex – 1w Team | 1w Team | 1.96 | 9 | lost | -9 | 772 |
| 24.09.26 | Yellow Submarine – Team Lynx | Team Lynx | 1.97 | 9 | lost | -9 | 781 |
| 24.09.26 | Two Move – Team Lynx | Two Move | 1.99 | 9 | lost | -9 | 789 |
| 24.09.26 | Daxak Team – gpK~ Team | gpK~ Team | 2.54 | 9 | lost | -9 | 798 |
| 24.09.26 | YBN Team – Rostik Team | YBN Team | 2.10 | 9 | lost | -9 | 807 |
| 22.09.26 | Team Spirit Academy – Nemiga Gaming | Nemiga Gaming | 2.35 | 9 | won | +12 | 816 |
| 22.09.26 | avice Team – Daxak Team | avice Team | 2.18 | 9 | lost | -9 | 804 |
| 22.09.26 | Natus Vincere – 1w Team | 1w Team | 2.37 | 9 | lost | -9 | 813 |
| 22.09.26 | Team Nemesis – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 2.06 | 9 | won | +10 | 822 |
| 21.09.26 | YBN Team – NS Team | NS Team | 1.95 | 9 | won | +8 | 813 |
| 21.09.26 | Two Move – Zero Tenacity | Two Move | 1.90 | 9 | won | +8 | 804 |
| 21.09.26 | Team Nemesis – MOUZ | MOUZ | 2.22 | 9 | lost | -9 | 796 |
| 21.09.26 | Nemiga Gaming – Kalmychata | Nemiga Gaming | 2.41 | 9 | lost | -9 | 805 |
| 21.09.26 | Aurora Gaming – Team Cobra | Team Cobra | 1.90 | 9 | lost | -9 | 814 |
| 20.09.26 | Inner Circle – Yellow Submarine | Inner Circle | 2.21 | 9 | lost | -9 | 823 |
| 20.09.26 | PlayTime – Team Cobra | PlayTime | 1.89 | 9 | lost | -9 | 833 |
| 20.09.26 | Conventus Stellarum – Xtreme Gaming | Xtreme Gaming | 1.89 | 9 | won | +8 | 842 |
| 19.09.26 | LGD Gaming – Yakult Brothers | LGD Gaming | 1.95 | 9 | won | +9 | 834 |
| 18.09.26 | uralan – Two Move | uralan | 1.89 | 9 | lost | -9 | 825 |
| 18.09.26 | Team Spirit Academy – Yellow Submarine | Team Spirit Academy | 1.99 | 9 | lost | -9 | 834 |
| 17.09.26 | Kalmychata – uralan | Kalmychata | 1.95 | 9 | won | +9 | 844 |
| 17.09.26 | Nemiga Gaming – Team Lynx | Nemiga Gaming | 2.25 | 9 | lost | -9 | 835 |
| 16.09.26 | Inner Circle – uralan | Inner Circle | 1.90 | 9 | lost | -9 | 844 |
| 13.09.26 | Recrent Team – Stariy_Bog Club | Recrent Team | 2.02 | 10 | lost | -10 | 854 |
| 12.09.26 | Team Nemesis – InterActive Philippines | InterActive Philippines | 1.95 | 10 | lost | -10 | 863 |
| 10.09.26 | GamerLegion – Klim Sani4 | GamerLegion | 2.24 | 10 | lost | -10 | 873 |
| 09.09.26 | Klim Sani4 – Inner Circle | Inner Circle | 2.06 | 10 | lost | -10 | 882 |
| 09.09.26 | Natus Vincere – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 1.96 | 10 | lost | -10 | 892 |
| 08.09.26 | MOUZ – GamerLegion | MOUZ | 1.96 | 10 | lost | -10 | 902 |
| 07.09.26 | GamerLegion – Pipsqueak+4 | GamerLegion | 1.97 | 10 | won | +10 | 912 |
| 01.09.26 | Zero Tenacity – Team Spirit Academy | Team Spirit Academy | 1.95 | 10 | lost | -10 | 902 |
| 30.08.26 | Natus Vincere – MOUZ | Natus Vincere | 1.89 | 9 | won | +8 | 912 |
| 29.08.26 | Klim Sani4 – Team Spirit Academy | Team Spirit Academy | 2.02 | 9 | lost | -9 | 904 |
| 29.08.26 | summer bear – Team Lynx | summer bear | 2.03 | 9 | lost | -9 | 914 |
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.