Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-18095u
ROI
-51.5%
win rate
38%
bets
1259
drawdown
1806.9%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
💰
Stake size
5% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-549u
period 24top-up-676u
period 23top-up-734u
period 22top-up-777u
period 21top-up-821u
period 20top-up-815u
period 19top-up-602u
period 18top-up-871u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 156 | 41% | -1867 | -26.2% | 180.7% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 1259 | 38% | -5819 | -52.7% | 581.7% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 1259 | 38% | -6661 | -52.9% | 666% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 1259 | 38% | -10234 | -52.4% | 1022.8% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 1259 | 38% | -18095 | -51.5% | 1806.9% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 750 | 3% | -21402 | -95% | 2140.2% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 1259 | 38% | -22822 | -49.9% | 2275.6% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1259, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | Team Liquid – Team Yandex | Team Liquid | 15.00 | 24 | lost | -24 | -17095 |
| 20.08.26 | PARIVISION – BETBOOM Team | BETBOOM Team | 15.00 | 25 | lost | -25 | -17071 |
| 16.08.26 | LGD Gaming – Team Yandex | LGD Gaming | 15.00 | 26 | lost | -26 | -17046 |
| 15.08.26 | Xtreme Gaming – Team Resilience | Team Resilience | 1.03 | 26 | won | +1 | -17020 |
| 15.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Spirit | Team Spirit | 14.00 | 28 | lost | -28 | -17021 |
| 15.08.26 | 1w Team – Team Liquid | 1w Team | 5.30 | 29 | lost | -29 | -16993 |
| 15.08.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 15.00 | 31 | lost | -31 | -16964 |
| 15.08.26 | Team Falcons – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 15.00 | 32 | lost | -32 | -16933 |
| 13.08.26 | Aurora Gaming – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 15.00 | 34 | lost | -34 | -16901 |
| 13.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Resilience | Team Resilience | 15.00 | 36 | lost | -36 | -16867 |
| 12.08.26 | Level UP – Rune Eaters | Level UP | 1.22 | 35 | won | +8 | -16831 |
| 10.08.26 | Rune Eaters Arise – No Hoodwink | No Hoodwink | 1.25 | 35 | won | +9 | -16839 |
| 08.08.26 | Ilbirs eSports – No Hoodwink | No Hoodwink | 1.01 | 35 | won | +0 | -16848 |
| 07.08.26 | Zero Tenacity – No Hoodwink | No Hoodwink | 13.00 | 37 | lost | -37 | -16848 |
| 06.08.26 | No Hoodwink – Level UP | Level UP | 2.25 | 35 | won | +43 | -16812 |
| 05.08.26 | Team Liquid – 1w Team | 1w Team | 15.00 | 36 | lost | -36 | -16855 |
| 04.08.26 | Yakult Brothers – Rune Eaters | Rune Eaters | 12.00 | 38 | lost | -38 | -16818 |
| 03.08.26 | Team Liquid – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 10.00 | 40 | lost | -40 | -16780 |
| 03.08.26 | Vici Gaming – Yakult Brothers | Yakult Brothers | 1.26 | 40 | won | +10 | -16740 |
| 03.08.26 | Xtreme Gaming – Team Resilience | Team Resilience | 1.30 | 39 | won | +12 | -16750 |
| 03.08.26 | GLYPH – PlayTime | GLYPH | 14.00 | 41 | lost | -41 | -16762 |
| 02.08.26 | Team Liquid – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 5.00 | 43 | lost | -43 | -16721 |
| 02.08.26 | Vici Gaming – OG | OG | 13.00 | 46 | lost | -46 | -16677 |
| 02.08.26 | TpaBoMaH Team – Stray Team | TpaBoMaH Team | 1.06 | 46 | won | +3 | -16632 |
| 01.08.26 | NS Team – VooDooSh Team | NS Team | 1.20 | 45 | won | +9 | -16634 |
| 01.08.26 | Daxak Team – Team avice | Daxak Team | 11.00 | 48 | lost | -48 | -16643 |
| 01.08.26 | Midas Club – Team Resilience | Midas Club | 14.00 | 50 | lost | -50 | -16596 |
| 31.07.26 | BETBOOM Team – Team Liquid | Team Liquid | 1.17 | 16 | won | +3 | -16546 |
| 31.07.26 | Yakult Brothers – Zero Tenacity | Yakult Brothers | 14.00 | 17 | lost | -17 | -16549 |
| 31.07.26 | L1ga Team – REKONIX | REKONIX | 1.05 | 17 | won | +1 | -16532 |
| 31.07.26 | LGD Gaming – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 7.00 | 18 | lost | -18 | -16532 |
| 31.07.26 | Amaru Gaming – Vici Gaming | Amaru Gaming | 11.00 | 19 | lost | -19 | -16515 |
| 30.07.26 | Ilbirs eSports – Amaru Gaming | Amaru Gaming | 3.00 | 20 | lost | -20 | -16496 |
| 30.07.26 | Team Falcons – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 15.00 | 21 | lost | -21 | -16476 |
| 30.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 1.01 | 21 | won | +0 | -16456 |
| 30.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – 1w Team | 1w Team | 1.12 | 21 | won | +2 | -16456 |
| 29.07.26 | Rostik Team – TpaBoMaH Team | TpaBoMaH Team | 1.02 | 21 | won | +0 | -16458 |
| 29.07.26 | NS Team – Stray Team | NS Team | 13.00 | 22 | lost | -22 | -16459 |
| 28.07.26 | YBN Team – Team avice | Team avice | 1.01 | 22 | won | +0 | -16437 |
| 28.07.26 | NS Team – TpaBoMaH Team | TpaBoMaH Team | 1.01 | 22 | won | +0 | -16437 |
| 27.07.26 | NS Team – Rostik Team | NS Team | 1.25 | 21 | won | +5 | -16437 |
| 24.07.26 | Nemiga Gaming – Level UP | Level UP | 1.06 | 21 | won | +1 | -16443 |
| 24.07.26 | Nemiga Gaming – Ilbirs eSports | Nemiga Gaming | 1.80 | 22 | lost | -22 | -16444 |
| 21.07.26 | Team Lynx – Team Spirit Academy | Team Spirit Academy | 2.40 | 21 | won | +29 | -16422 |
| 20.07.26 | Level UP – Ilbirs eSports | Level UP | 1.02 | 21 | won | +0 | -16451 |
| 20.07.26 | Zero Tenacity – Nemiga Gaming | Nemiga Gaming | 3.60 | 22 | lost | -22 | -16451 |
| 20.07.26 | Team Lynx – PuckChamp | PuckChamp | 1.02 | 22 | won | +0 | -16429 |
| 19.07.26 | Vici Gaming – Team Yandex | Vici Gaming | 15.00 | 23 | lost | -23 | -16430 |
| 18.07.26 | Team Yandex – PARIVISION | Team Yandex | 6.00 | 24 | lost | -24 | -16407 |
| 18.07.26 | BETBOOM Team – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 15.00 | 26 | lost | -26 | -16382 |
| 17.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – BETBOOM Team | Nigma Galaxy | 15.00 | 27 | lost | -27 | -16357 |
| 14.07.26 | Team Liquid – Xtreme Gaming | Xtreme Gaming | 15.00 | 28 | lost | -28 | -16329 |
| 12.07.26 | 1w Team – Team Yandex | 1w Team | 15.00 | 30 | lost | -30 | -16301 |
| 12.07.26 | REKONIX – Team Nemesis | REKONIX | 1.01 | 30 | won | +0 | -16271 |
| 11.07.26 | PlayTime – Nigma Galaxy | PlayTime | 5.80 | 32 | lost | -32 | -16271 |
| 10.07.26 | REKONIX – Team Spirit | REKONIX | 15.00 | 33 | lost | -33 | -16240 |
| 10.07.26 | Team Nemesis – Vici Gaming | Team Nemesis | 13.00 | 35 | lost | -35 | -16207 |
| 08.07.26 | Team Yandex – Inner Circle | Inner Circle | 15.00 | 37 | lost | -37 | -16172 |
| 08.07.26 | Vici Gaming – PARIVISION | Vici Gaming | 15.00 | 39 | lost | -39 | -16135 |
| 08.07.26 | Team Spirit – Team Nemesis | Team Nemesis | 15.00 | 41 | lost | -41 | -16096 |
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.