Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-2071u
ROI
-22.2%
win rate
38%
bets
130
drawdown
199.7%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
payments
Stake size
10% of bankroll
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3top-up-541u
period 2top-up-790u
period 1top-up-740u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% of bankroll | 130 | 38% | -290 | -23% | 30.5% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 130 | 38% | -299 | -23% | 31.5% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 130 | 38% | -561 | -23% | 58.3% | Select |
| Martingale | 8 | 13% | -1000 | -98.1% | 100% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 130 | 38% | -1260 | -22.8% | 127.1% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 130 | 38% | -2071 | -22.2% | 199.7% | Selected |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 130, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.10.26 | Yellow Submarine – Power Rangers | Power Rangers | 2.09 | 51 | lost | -51 | -1071 |
| 14.10.26 | Team Resilience – Yakult Brothers | Yakult Brothers | 2.28 | 57 | lost | -57 | -1020 |
| 14.10.26 | zxcursed Team – ALOHADANCE Team | ALOHADANCE Team | 1.89 | 52 | won | +46 | -963 |
| 14.10.26 | Nemiga Gaming – Kalmychata | Nemiga Gaming | 2.45 | 58 | lost | -58 | -1010 |
| 13.10.26 | Nemiga Gaming – Dawn Bulls | Nemiga Gaming | 3.13 | 48 | won | +101 | -952 |
| 13.10.26 | CyberHero – Shadow Dance | CyberHero | 1.90 | 44 | won | +39 | -1053 |
| 13.10.26 | Power Rangers – The WarriorsQ | The WarriorsQ | 1.95 | 49 | lost | -49 | -1093 |
| 13.10.26 | Cloud Rising – Cloud Dawning | Cloud Dawning | 1.95 | 54 | lost | -54 | -1044 |
| 12.10.26 | The WarriorsQ – Dawn Bulls | The WarriorsQ | 2.11 | 60 | lost | -60 | -990 |
| 11.10.26 | Team Spirit – PARIVISION | PARIVISION | 2.12 | 67 | lost | -67 | -930 |
| 09.10.26 | Aurora Gaming – LGD Gaming | Aurora Gaming | 1.91 | 61 | won | +55 | -864 |
| 09.10.26 | Team Spirit – Aurora Gaming | Aurora Gaming | 2.14 | 68 | lost | -68 | -919 |
| 08.10.26 | LEGION – BlasterbI | LEGION | 1.89 | 62 | won | +55 | -851 |
| 08.10.26 | Aurora Gaming – 1w Team | 1w Team | 1.91 | 69 | lost | -69 | -906 |
| 08.10.26 | Team Yandex – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 2.13 | 77 | lost | -77 | -837 |
| 07.10.26 | CyberHero – BlasterbI | CyberHero | 1.89 | 85 | lost | -85 | -760 |
| 07.10.26 | Team Synapse – LEGION | LEGION | 1.92 | 78 | won | +72 | -675 |
| 07.10.26 | MOUZ – CyberHero | MOUZ | 2.19 | 87 | lost | -87 | -747 |
| 06.10.26 | Team Synapse – Yellow Submarine | Team Synapse | 2.20 | 78 | won | +93 | -660 |
| 06.10.26 | HULIGANI – CyberHero | HULIGANI | 2.08 | 86 | lost | -86 | -753 |
| 05.10.26 | MOUZ – Nemiga Gaming | Nemiga Gaming | 2.03 | 96 | lost | -96 | -667 |
| 05.10.26 | LEGION – BlasterbI | BlasterbI | 1.89 | 107 | lost | -107 | -571 |
| 05.10.26 | Yellow Submarine – CyberHero | CyberHero | 2.23 | 118 | lost | -118 | -464 |
| 03.10.26 | Team Spirit – Team Yandex | Team Spirit | 2.05 | 107 | won | +113 | -346 |
| 03.10.26 | Daxak Team – Cake Team | Cake Team | 2.19 | 96 | won | +114 | -458 |
| 03.10.26 | LGD Gaming – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 1.92 | 106 | lost | -106 | -572 |
| 02.10.26 | BETBOOM TEAM – OG | OG | 1.90 | 98 | won | +88 | -466 |
| 02.10.26 | 1w Team – Team Nemesis | 1w Team | 2.03 | 88 | won | +91 | -554 |
| 02.10.26 | LGD Gaming – Xtreme Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.92 | 81 | won | +75 | -645 |
| 01.10.26 | GamerLegion – Yakult Brothers | Yakult Brothers | 2.05 | 90 | lost | -90 | -720 |
| 01.10.26 | MOUZ – OG | MOUZ | 2.03 | 100 | lost | -100 | -630 |
| 30.09.26 | PARIVISION – LGD Gaming | PARIVISION | 2.07 | 19 | won | +20 | -530 |
| 30.09.26 | Team Yandex – MOUZ | MOUZ | 2.68 | 21 | lost | -21 | -550 |
| 30.09.26 | BETBOOM TEAM – OG | BETBOOM TEAM | 1.89 | 19 | won | +17 | -529 |
| 29.09.26 | Aurora Gaming – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 1.90 | 22 | lost | -22 | -546 |
| 29.09.26 | 1w Team – Natus Vincere | 1w Team | 2.75 | 18 | won | +32 | -524 |
| 29.09.26 | Team Spirit – Team Nemesis | Team Nemesis | 2.05 | 20 | lost | -20 | -557 |
| 27.09.26 | YBN Team – Cake Team | YBN Team | 2.13 | 23 | lost | -23 | -536 |
| 27.09.26 | Daxak Team – Rostik Team | Rostik Team | 2.23 | 25 | lost | -25 | -514 |
| 27.09.26 | Stray Team – YBN Team | YBN Team | 2.05 | 23 | won | +24 | -488 |
| 27.09.26 | avice Team – Cake Team | avice Team | 1.95 | 25 | lost | -25 | -512 |
| 27.09.26 | LGD Gaming – Natus Vincere | LGD Gaming | 2.46 | 28 | lost | -28 | -487 |
| 26.09.26 | Rostik Team – avice Team | avice Team | 1.92 | 31 | lost | -31 | -459 |
| 25.09.26 | Xtreme Gaming – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 2.01 | 28 | won | +29 | -428 |
| 25.09.26 | Team Synapse – Yellow Submarine | Team Synapse | 2.43 | 25 | won | +36 | -456 |
| 25.09.26 | Solo Team – avice Team | Solo Team | 1.96 | 28 | lost | -28 | -492 |
| 25.09.26 | GamerLegion – 1w Team | 1w Team | 1.95 | 31 | lost | -31 | -464 |
| 25.09.26 | Team Nemesis – Natus Vincere | Team Nemesis | 2.21 | 34 | lost | -34 | -434 |
| 24.09.26 | TpaBoMaH Team – Stray Team | Stray Team | 1.90 | 38 | lost | -38 | -400 |
| 24.09.26 | Team Yandex – 1w Team | 1w Team | 1.96 | 42 | lost | -42 | -362 |
| 24.09.26 | Yellow Submarine – Team Lynx | Team Lynx | 1.97 | 47 | lost | -47 | -320 |
| 24.09.26 | Two Move – Team Lynx | Two Move | 1.99 | 52 | lost | -52 | -273 |
| 24.09.26 | Daxak Team – gpK~ Team | gpK~ Team | 2.54 | 58 | lost | -58 | -222 |
| 24.09.26 | Natus Vincere – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 2.47 | 50 | won | +74 | -164 |
| 24.09.26 | YBN Team – Rostik Team | YBN Team | 2.10 | 56 | lost | -56 | -238 |
| 23.09.26 | Stray Team – NS Team | NS Team | 2.01 | 62 | lost | -62 | -182 |
| 23.09.26 | Team Nemesis – Conventus Stellarum | Conventus Stellarum | 2.06 | 69 | lost | -69 | -120 |
| 22.09.26 | LGD Gaming – Aurora Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.90 | 77 | lost | -77 | -51 |
| 22.09.26 | Team Spirit Academy – Nemiga Gaming | Nemiga Gaming | 2.35 | 67 | won | +91 | 26 |
| 22.09.26 | avice Team – Daxak Team | avice Team | 2.18 | 75 | lost | -75 | -65 |
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.