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Model underdog (Elo)

D2Dota 210% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-2151u
ROI
-23.1%
win rate
37%
bets
130
drawdown
205%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

10% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3top-up-621u
period 2top-up-790u
period 1top-up-740u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
1% of bankroll13037%-307-24.4%31.4%Select
Flat (10 units)13037%-318-24.5%32.4%Select
2% of bankroll13037%-593-24.3%60.1%Select
Martingale813%-1000-98.1%100%Select
5% of bankroll13037%-1324-24%130.9%Select
10% of bankroll13037%-2151-23.1%205%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 130, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26Yellow Submarine – Power RangersPower Rangers2.0942lost-42-1151
14.10.26Team Resilience – Yakult BrothersYakult Brothers2.2847lost-47-1108
14.10.26Team Lynx – PuckChampPuckChamp2.8952lost-52-1062
14.10.26The WarriorsQ – Shadow DanceThe WarriorsQ1.9458lost-58-1010
13.10.26Nemiga Gaming – Dawn BullsNemiga Gaming3.1348won+101-952
13.10.26CyberHero – Shadow DanceCyberHero1.9044won+39-1053
13.10.26Power Rangers – The WarriorsQThe WarriorsQ1.9549lost-49-1093
13.10.26Cloud Rising – Cloud DawningCloud Dawning1.9554lost-54-1044
12.10.26The WarriorsQ – Dawn BullsThe WarriorsQ2.1160lost-60-990
11.10.26Team Spirit – PARIVISIONPARIVISION2.1267lost-67-930
09.10.26Aurora Gaming – LGD GamingAurora Gaming1.9161won+55-864
09.10.26Team Spirit – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming2.1468lost-68-919
08.10.26LEGION – BlasterbILEGION1.8962won+55-851
08.10.26Aurora Gaming – 1w Team1w Team1.9169lost-69-906
08.10.26Team Yandex – LGD GamingLGD Gaming2.1377lost-77-837
07.10.26CyberHero – BlasterbICyberHero1.8985lost-85-760
07.10.26Team Synapse – LEGIONLEGION1.9278won+72-675
07.10.26MOUZ – CyberHeroMOUZ2.1987lost-87-747
06.10.26Team Synapse – Yellow SubmarineTeam Synapse2.2078won+93-660
06.10.26HULIGANI – CyberHeroHULIGANI2.0886lost-86-753
05.10.26MOUZ – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming2.0396lost-96-667
05.10.26LEGION – BlasterbIBlasterbI1.89107lost-107-571
05.10.26Yellow Submarine – CyberHeroCyberHero2.23118lost-118-464
03.10.26Team Spirit – Team YandexTeam Spirit2.05107won+113-346
03.10.26Daxak Team – Cake TeamCake Team2.1996won+114-458
03.10.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion1.92106lost-106-572
02.10.26BETBOOM TEAM – OGOG1.9098won+88-466
02.10.261w Team – Team Nemesis1w Team2.0388won+91-554
02.10.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingLGD Gaming1.9281won+75-645
01.10.26GamerLegion – Yakult BrothersYakult Brothers2.0590lost-90-720
01.10.26MOUZ – OGMOUZ2.03100lost-100-630
30.09.26PARIVISION – LGD GamingPARIVISION2.0719won+20-530
30.09.26Team Yandex – MOUZMOUZ2.6821lost-21-550
30.09.26BETBOOM TEAM – OGBETBOOM TEAM1.8919won+17-529
29.09.26Aurora Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion1.9022lost-22-546
29.09.261w Team – Natus Vincere1w Team2.7518won+32-524
29.09.26Team Spirit – Team NemesisTeam Nemesis2.0520lost-20-557
27.09.26YBN Team – Cake TeamYBN Team2.1323lost-23-536
27.09.26Daxak Team – Rostik TeamRostik Team2.2325lost-25-514
27.09.26Stray Team – YBN TeamYBN Team2.0523won+24-488
27.09.26avice Team – Cake Teamavice Team1.9525lost-25-512
27.09.26LGD Gaming – Natus VincereLGD Gaming2.4628lost-28-487
26.09.26Rostik Team – avice Teamavice Team1.9231lost-31-459
25.09.26Xtreme Gaming – LGD GamingLGD Gaming2.0128won+29-428
25.09.26Team Synapse – Yellow SubmarineTeam Synapse2.4325won+36-456
25.09.26Solo Team – avice TeamSolo Team1.9628lost-28-492
25.09.26GamerLegion – 1w Team1w Team1.9531lost-31-464
25.09.26Team Nemesis – Natus VincereTeam Nemesis2.2134lost-34-434
24.09.26TpaBoMaH Team – Stray TeamStray Team1.9038lost-38-400
24.09.26Team Yandex – 1w Team1w Team1.9642lost-42-362
24.09.26Yellow Submarine – Team LynxTeam Lynx1.9747lost-47-320
24.09.26Two Move – Team LynxTwo Move1.9952lost-52-273
24.09.26Daxak Team – gpK~ TeamgpK~ Team2.5458lost-58-222
24.09.26Natus Vincere – LGD GamingLGD Gaming2.4750won+74-164
24.09.26YBN Team – Rostik TeamYBN Team2.1056lost-56-238
23.09.26Stray Team – NS TeamNS Team2.0162lost-62-182
23.09.26Team Nemesis – Conventus StellarumConventus Stellarum2.0669lost-69-120
22.09.26LGD Gaming – Aurora GamingLGD Gaming1.9077lost-77-51
22.09.26Team Spirit Academy – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming2.3567won+9126
22.09.26avice Team – Daxak Teamavice Team2.1875lost-75-65
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.