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Model underdog (Elo)

D2Dota 22% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-16024u
ROI
-51.9%
win rate
38%
bets
2542
drawdown
1599.4%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

💰
Stake size

2% of bankroll

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-456u
period 24top-up-520u
period 23top-up-628u
period 22top-up-779u
period 21top-up-644u
period 20top-up-759u
period 19top-up-622u
period 18top-up-788u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale7642%-1190-46.2%119%Select
1% of bankroll254238%-10178-52.1%1016.8%Select
Flat (10 units)254238%-13311-52.4%1329.9%Select
2% of bankroll254238%-16024-51.9%1599.4%Select
5% of bankroll254238%-22671-51.3%2256.3%Select
Quarter Kelly15243%-24223-92.7%2422.3%Select
10% of bankroll254238%-24532-50.7%2429.9%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 2542, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
20.08.26Team Liquid – Team YandexTeam Liquid15.0011lost-11-15024
20.08.26PARIVISION – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team15.0011lost-11-15013
16.08.26LGD Gaming – Team YandexLGD Gaming15.0012lost-12-15002
15.08.26OG – GamerLegionGamerLegion1.0112won+0-14990
15.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience1.0312won+0-14990
15.08.26PARIVISION – Team SpiritTeam Spirit14.0012lost-12-14990
15.08.26BETBOOM Team – Aurora GamingBETBOOM Team15.0012lost-12-14979
15.08.261w Team – Team Liquid1w Team5.3012lost-12-14967
15.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.0013lost-13-14954
15.08.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming15.0013lost-13-14942
15.08.26Team Falcons – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.0013lost-13-14929
14.08.26LGD Gaming – Nigma GalaxyLGD Gaming15.0013lost-13-14916
14.08.26Xtreme Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion1.0213won+0-14903
13.08.26Team Falcons – PARIVISIONTeam Falcons1.8014lost-14-14903
13.08.26OG – Nigma GalaxyOG5.8014lost-14-14889
13.08.26Aurora Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.0014lost-14-14876
13.08.26PARIVISION – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience15.0014lost-14-14862
12.08.26Level UP – Rune EatersLevel UP1.2214won+3-14847
11.08.26Rune Eaters – Zero TenacityRune Eaters1.0114won+0-14850
11.08.26Yellow Submarine – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity1.0114won+0-14850
11.08.26Rune Eaters – MOUZRune Eaters1.0114won+0-14851
10.08.26Rune Eaters – Natus VincereRune Eaters15.0015lost-15-14851
10.08.26Rune Eaters Arise – No HoodwinkNo Hoodwink1.2515won+4-14836
08.08.26Power Rangers – Team SyntaxTeam Syntax12.0015lost-15-14840
07.08.26Team Jenz – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming1.0215won+0-14825
07.08.26Zero Tenacity – No HoodwinkNo Hoodwink13.0015lost-15-14825
06.08.26Ilbirs eSports – Power RangersIlbirs eSports6.6015lost-15-14810
06.08.26No Hoodwink – Level UPLevel UP2.2515won+19-14795
05.08.26Team Liquid – 1w Team1w Team15.0015lost-15-14813
05.08.26PlayTime – Yakult BrothersYakult Brothers15.0016lost-16-14798
05.08.261w Team – BETBOOM Team1w Team1.0116won+0-14782
04.08.26Team Liquid – Team FalconsTeam Liquid13.0016lost-16-14782
04.08.26Yakult Brothers – Rune EatersRune Eaters12.0016lost-16-14766
04.08.26PlayTime – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience13.0017lost-17-14750
03.08.26Team Liquid – Vici GamingVici Gaming10.0017lost-17-14733
03.08.26Vici Gaming – Yakult BrothersYakult Brothers1.2617won+4-14716
03.08.26OG – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.0017lost-17-14721
03.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience1.3017won+5-14704
03.08.26LGD Gaming – 1w Team1w Team1.0117won+0-14709
03.08.26GLYPH – PlayTimeGLYPH14.0018lost-18-14709
02.08.26Team Liquid – LGD GamingLGD Gaming5.0018lost-18-14691
02.08.26Vici Gaming – OGOG13.0018lost-18-14673
02.08.26TpaBoMaH Team – Stray TeamTpaBoMaH Team1.0618won+1-14655
02.08.26Team Falcons – 1w Team1w Team15.0019lost-19-14656
02.08.26Yellow Submarine – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience1.0619won+1-14638
01.08.26Stray Team – TpaBoMaH TeamTpaBoMaH Team1.0419won+1-14639
01.08.26GLYPH – Zero TenacityGLYPH1.1019won+2-14640
01.08.26NS Team – VooDooSh TeamNS Team1.2018won+4-14641
01.08.26BETBOOM Team – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.0019lost-19-14645
01.08.26Daxak Team – Team aviceDaxak Team11.0019lost-19-14626
01.08.26BETBOOM Team – LGD GamingLGD Gaming14.0020lost-20-14607
01.08.26Midas Club – Team ResilienceMidas Club14.0020lost-20-14587
31.07.26Xtreme Gaming – LGD GamingXtreme Gaming1.859won+8-14567
31.07.26BETBOOM Team – Team LiquidTeam Liquid1.179won+2-14575
31.07.26Yakult Brothers – Zero TenacityYakult Brothers14.0010lost-10-14577
31.07.26Enjoy Boys – GLYPHEnjoy Boys14.0010lost-10-14567
31.07.26L1ga Team – REKONIXREKONIX1.0510won+0-14558
31.07.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion7.0010lost-10-14558
31.07.26Amaru Gaming – Vici GamingAmaru Gaming11.0010lost-10-14548
30.07.26Ilbirs eSports – Amaru GamingAmaru Gaming3.0010lost-10-14538
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.