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Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)

D2Dota 21% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Value on the underdog: the same ≥ 5% edge, but only on a team at odds ≥ 2.0. Hunting underrated dogs — rarer, with bigger payouts.

profit
-3914u
ROI
-90%
win rate
3%
bets
475
drawdown
391.4%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)

💰
Stake size

1% of bankroll

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-59u
period 24top-up-165u
period 23top-up-183u
period 22top-up-203u
period 21top-up-183u
period 20top-up-157u
period 19top-up-140u
period 18top-up-152u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale70%-1070-100%107%Select
1% of bankroll4753%-3914-90%391.4%Selected
Flat (10 units)4753%-4267-89.8%426.7%Select
2% of bankroll4753%-7196-90.3%719.6%Select
5% of bankroll4753%-14192-90.9%1419.2%Select
Quarter Kelly4753%-18471-94.4%1847.1%Select
10% of bankroll4753%-20079-92%2007.9%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 475, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
15.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.0010lost-10-2914
13.08.26PARIVISION – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience15.0010lost-10-2904
03.08.26Team Liquid – Vici GamingVici Gaming10.0010lost-10-2894
03.08.26GLYPH – PlayTimeGLYPH14.0010lost-10-2885
02.08.26Vici Gaming – OGOG13.0010lost-10-2875
01.08.26NS Team – VooDooSh TeamVooDooSh Team4.2010lost-10-2865
31.07.26BETBOOM Team – Team LiquidBETBOOM Team11.008lost-8-2855
31.07.26Yakult Brothers – Zero TenacityYakult Brothers14.009lost-9-2847
31.07.26Amaru Gaming – Vici GamingAmaru Gaming11.009lost-9-2838
30.07.26Ilbirs eSports – Amaru GamingAmaru Gaming3.009lost-9-2830
30.07.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingNigma Galaxy13.009lost-9-2821
30.07.26Nigma Galaxy – 1w TeamNigma Galaxy14.009lost-9-2812
29.07.26Rostik Team – TpaBoMaH TeamRostik Team10.009lost-9-2803
28.07.26NS Team – TpaBoMaH TeamNS Team13.009lost-9-2794
27.07.26NS Team – Rostik TeamRostik Team3.609lost-9-2785
20.07.26Zero Tenacity – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming3.609lost-9-2776
17.07.26Nigma Galaxy – BETBOOM TeamNigma Galaxy15.009lost-9-2767
12.07.26REKONIX – Team NemesisTeam Nemesis2.909lost-9-2757
11.07.26PlayTime – Nigma GalaxyPlayTime5.8010lost-10-2748
10.07.26REKONIX – Team SpiritREKONIX15.0010lost-10-2739
08.07.26Team Yandex – Inner CircleInner Circle15.0010lost-10-2729
08.07.26GamerLegion – Xtreme GamingGamerLegion15.0010lost-10-2719
08.07.26Poor Rangers – BETBOOM TeamPoor Rangers15.0010lost-10-2709
07.07.26Inner Circle – 1w TeamInner Circle15.0010lost-10-2700
28.06.26Nigma Galaxy – Yellow SubmarineYellow Submarine5.808lost-8-2690
28.06.26By_Owl Team – ALOHADANCE TeamALOHADANCE Team13.008lost-8-2681
27.06.26Natus Vincere – L1ga TeamNatus Vincere2.258lost-8-2673
25.06.26Team Spirit – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy12.009lost-9-2665
24.06.26Recrent Team – Stray TeamRecrent Team10.009lost-9-2656
24.06.26Dread Team – DangerLyoha TeamDangerLyoha Team3.209lost-9-2647
21.06.26InterActive Philippines – Mentality MonsterInterActive Philippines10.009lost-9-2639
21.06.26Grind Back – Carstensz EsportsCarstensz Esports13.009lost-9-2630
19.06.26summer bear – Power Rangerssummer bear13.009lost-9-2621
17.06.26Power Rangers – Flame EsportsFlame Esports12.009lost-9-2612
16.06.26Flame Esports – Team Spirit AcademyFlame Esports4.209lost-9-2603
13.06.26Estar Backs – Gior Dota TeamGior Dota Team12.009lost-9-2594
11.06.26Phenomenon – NA Last HopePhenomenon2.909won+17-2585
11.06.26Team Nemesis – Gior Dota TeamGior Dota Team12.009lost-9-2602
10.06.26L1ga Team – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity11.009lost-9-2593
07.06.26BETBOOM Team – LGD GamingBETBOOM Team2.259lost-9-2584
06.06.26Ramzes Club – TpaBoMaH ClubTpaBoMaH Club3.109lost-9-2574
05.06.26LGD Gaming – Team LiquidTeam Liquid15.0010lost-10-2565
05.06.26Execration – REKONIXExecration13.0010lost-10-2555
04.06.26Carstensz Esports – REKONIXCarstensz Esports12.0010lost-10-2546
02.06.26L1ga Team – Poor RangersL1ga Team13.0010lost-10-2536
02.06.26LGD Gaming – Natus VincereNatus Vincere13.0010lost-10-2526
01.06.26Ramzes Club – TpaBoMaH ClubTpaBoMaH Club6.6010lost-10-2516
30.05.26Team Spirit – OGOG15.008lost-8-2506
29.05.26Team Yandex – LGD GamingTeam Yandex2.708lost-8-2498
28.05.26NS Club – Ramzes ClubNS Club5.308lost-8-2490
27.05.26OG – Team YandexOG15.008lost-8-2482
26.05.26PARIVISION – Team YandexPARIVISION15.008lost-8-2474
26.05.26Team Liquid – Team YandexTeam Liquid15.008lost-8-2465
26.05.26GLYPH – LGD GamingGLYPH2.359lost-9-2457
24.05.26Recrent Team – Solo TeamRecrent Team12.009lost-9-2448
23.05.26Miposhka Team – Stray TeamMiposhka Team10.009lost-9-2440
22.05.26Aurora Gaming – Tundra EsportsTundra Esports11.009lost-9-2431
17.05.26Team Falcons – GamerLegionGamerLegion8.509lost-9-2422
16.05.26Aurora Gaming – Vici GamingAurora Gaming2.409won+12-2413
16.05.26Tundra Esports – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team15.009lost-9-2426
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.