Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)
Value on the underdog: the same ≥ 5% edge, but only on a team at odds ≥ 2.0. Hunting underrated dogs — rarer, with bigger payouts.
profit
-8566u
ROI
-89.2%
win rate
3%
bets
1194
drawdown
856.6%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)
💰
Stake size
1% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-230u
period 24top-up-297u
period 23top-up-359u
period 22top-up-392u
period 21top-up-419u
period 20top-up-304u
period 19top-up-375u
period 18top-up-430u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 7 | 0% | -1000 | -100% | 100% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 1194 | 3% | -8566 | -89.2% | 856.6% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 1194 | 3% | -10584 | -88.6% | 1058.4% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 1194 | 3% | -14098 | -89.8% | 1409.8% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 1194 | 3% | -21558 | -91.5% | 2155.8% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 1194 | 3% | -23851 | -95.2% | 2385.1% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 1194 | 3% | -24247 | -93.4% | 2424.7% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1194, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | Team Liquid – Team Yandex | Team Liquid | 15.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7566 |
| 20.08.26 | PARIVISION – BETBOOM Team | BETBOOM Team | 15.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7558 |
| 16.08.26 | LGD Gaming – Team Yandex | LGD Gaming | 15.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7550 |
| 15.08.26 | Xtreme Gaming – Team Resilience | Xtreme Gaming | 11.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7542 |
| 15.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Spirit | Team Spirit | 14.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7534 |
| 15.08.26 | 1w Team – Team Liquid | 1w Team | 5.30 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7526 |
| 15.08.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 15.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7518 |
| 15.08.26 | Team Falcons – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 15.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7510 |
| 13.08.26 | Aurora Gaming – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 15.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7501 |
| 13.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Resilience | Team Resilience | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7493 |
| 12.08.26 | Level UP – Rune Eaters | Rune Eaters | 4.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7484 |
| 10.08.26 | Rune Eaters Arise – No Hoodwink | Rune Eaters Arise | 12.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7476 |
| 08.08.26 | Power Rangers – Team Syntax | Team Syntax | 12.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7467 |
| 07.08.26 | Zero Tenacity – No Hoodwink | No Hoodwink | 13.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7458 |
| 05.08.26 | Team Liquid – 1w Team | 1w Team | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7450 |
| 04.08.26 | Yakult Brothers – Rune Eaters | Rune Eaters | 12.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7441 |
| 03.08.26 | Team Liquid – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 10.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7432 |
| 03.08.26 | Vici Gaming – Yakult Brothers | Vici Gaming | 3.60 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7422 |
| 03.08.26 | Xtreme Gaming – Team Resilience | Xtreme Gaming | 3.30 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7413 |
| 03.08.26 | GLYPH – PlayTime | GLYPH | 14.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7404 |
| 02.08.26 | Team Liquid – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 5.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -7394 |
| 02.08.26 | Vici Gaming – OG | OG | 13.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -7385 |
| 02.08.26 | TpaBoMaH Team – Stray Team | Stray Team | 13.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -7375 |
| 01.08.26 | NS Team – VooDooSh Team | VooDooSh Team | 4.20 | 10 | lost | -10 | -7366 |
| 01.08.26 | Daxak Team – Team avice | Daxak Team | 11.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -7356 |
| 01.08.26 | Midas Club – Team Resilience | Midas Club | 14.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -7346 |
| 31.07.26 | BETBOOM Team – Team Liquid | BETBOOM Team | 11.00 | 7 | lost | -7 | -7336 |
| 31.07.26 | Yakult Brothers – Zero Tenacity | Yakult Brothers | 14.00 | 7 | lost | -7 | -7329 |
| 31.07.26 | L1ga Team – REKONIX | L1ga Team | 8.50 | 7 | lost | -7 | -7322 |
| 31.07.26 | LGD Gaming – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 7.00 | 7 | lost | -7 | -7314 |
| 31.07.26 | Amaru Gaming – Vici Gaming | Amaru Gaming | 11.00 | 7 | lost | -7 | -7307 |
| 30.07.26 | Ilbirs eSports – Amaru Gaming | Amaru Gaming | 3.00 | 7 | lost | -7 | -7300 |
| 30.07.26 | Team Falcons – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 15.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7292 |
| 30.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Vici Gaming | Nigma Galaxy | 13.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7285 |
| 30.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – 1w Team | Nigma Galaxy | 14.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7277 |
| 29.07.26 | Rostik Team – TpaBoMaH Team | Rostik Team | 10.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7269 |
| 29.07.26 | NS Team – Stray Team | NS Team | 13.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7262 |
| 28.07.26 | YBN Team – Team avice | YBN Team | 13.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7254 |
| 28.07.26 | NS Team – TpaBoMaH Team | NS Team | 13.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7246 |
| 27.07.26 | NS Team – Rostik Team | Rostik Team | 3.60 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7238 |
| 24.07.26 | Nemiga Gaming – Level UP | Nemiga Gaming | 7.50 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7230 |
| 20.07.26 | Level UP – Ilbirs eSports | Ilbirs eSports | 10.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7221 |
| 20.07.26 | Zero Tenacity – Nemiga Gaming | Nemiga Gaming | 3.60 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7213 |
| 20.07.26 | Team Lynx – PuckChamp | Team Lynx | 10.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7205 |
| 19.07.26 | Vici Gaming – Team Yandex | Vici Gaming | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7196 |
| 18.07.26 | Team Yandex – PARIVISION | Team Yandex | 6.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7188 |
| 18.07.26 | BETBOOM Team – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7179 |
| 17.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – BETBOOM Team | Nigma Galaxy | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7171 |
| 14.07.26 | Team Liquid – Xtreme Gaming | Xtreme Gaming | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7162 |
| 12.07.26 | 1w Team – Team Yandex | 1w Team | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7153 |
| 12.07.26 | REKONIX – Team Nemesis | Team Nemesis | 2.90 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7144 |
| 11.07.26 | PlayTime – Nigma Galaxy | PlayTime | 5.80 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7135 |
| 10.07.26 | REKONIX – Team Spirit | REKONIX | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7126 |
| 10.07.26 | Team Nemesis – Vici Gaming | Team Nemesis | 13.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7117 |
| 08.07.26 | Team Yandex – Inner Circle | Inner Circle | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7107 |
| 08.07.26 | Vici Gaming – PARIVISION | Vici Gaming | 15.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -7098 |
| 08.07.26 | Team Spirit – Team Nemesis | Team Nemesis | 15.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -7088 |
| 08.07.26 | GamerLegion – Xtreme Gaming | GamerLegion | 15.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -7079 |
| 08.07.26 | Poor Rangers – BETBOOM Team | Poor Rangers | 15.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -7069 |
| 07.07.26 | Inner Circle – 1w Team | Inner Circle | 15.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -7059 |
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.