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Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)

D2Dota 2Quarter Kellypayout: monthly

Value on the underdog: the same ≥ 5% edge, but only on a team at odds ≥ 2.0. Hunting underrated dogs — rarer, with bigger payouts.

profit
-23859u
ROI
-95.3%
win rate
3%
bets
1194
drawdown
2385.9%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)

💰
Stake size

Quarter Kelly

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-888u
period 24top-up-929u
period 23top-up-976u
period 22top-up-984u
period 21top-up-992u
period 20top-up-948u
period 19top-up-987u
period 18top-up-989u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale70%-1000-100%100%Select
1% of bankroll11943%-8591-89.5%859.1%Select
Flat (10 units)11943%-10628-89%1062.9%Select
2% of bankroll11943%-14126-90.1%1412.6%Select
5% of bankroll11943%-21569-91.7%2156.9%Select
Quarter Kelly11943%-23859-95.3%2385.9%Selected
10% of bankroll11943%-24247-93.4%2424.7%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1194, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
20.08.26Team Liquid – Team YandexTeam Liquid15.0012lost-12-22859
20.08.26PARIVISION – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team15.008lost-8-22846
16.08.26LGD Gaming – Team YandexLGD Gaming15.009lost-9-22839
15.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceXtreme Gaming11.0016lost-16-22830
15.08.26PARIVISION – Team SpiritTeam Spirit14.0011lost-11-22814
15.08.261w Team – Team Liquid1w Team5.308lost-8-22803
15.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.0020lost-20-22795
15.08.26Team Falcons – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.008lost-8-22775
13.08.26Aurora Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.007lost-7-22768
13.08.26PARIVISION – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience15.003lost-3-22760
12.08.26Level UP – Rune EatersRune Eaters4.0024lost-24-22758
10.08.26Rune Eaters Arise – No HoodwinkRune Eaters Arise12.0026lost-26-22734
08.08.26Ilbirs eSports – No HoodwinkIlbirs eSports13.0029lost-29-22708
07.08.26Zero Tenacity – No HoodwinkNo Hoodwink13.0032lost-32-22678
05.08.26Team Liquid – 1w Team1w Team15.0029lost-29-22646
04.08.26Yakult Brothers – Rune EatersRune Eaters12.0039lost-39-22617
03.08.26Team Liquid – Vici GamingVici Gaming10.0029lost-29-22578
03.08.26Vici Gaming – Yakult BrothersVici Gaming3.6047lost-47-22549
03.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceXtreme Gaming3.3052lost-52-22502
03.08.26GLYPH – PlayTimeGLYPH14.0043lost-43-22450
02.08.26Team Liquid – LGD GamingLGD Gaming5.0037lost-37-22406
02.08.26Vici Gaming – OGOG13.0063lost-63-22370
02.08.26TpaBoMaH Team – Stray TeamStray Team13.0074lost-74-22307
01.08.26NS Team – VooDooSh TeamVooDooSh Team4.2076lost-76-22233
01.08.26Daxak Team – Team aviceDaxak Team11.0090lost-90-22157
01.08.26Midas Club – Team ResilienceMidas Club14.0096lost-96-22067
31.07.26BETBOOM Team – Team LiquidBETBOOM Team11.008lost-8-21971
31.07.26Yakult Brothers – Zero TenacityYakult Brothers14.009lost-9-21963
31.07.26L1ga Team – REKONIXL1ga Team8.5010lost-10-21954
31.07.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion7.007lost-7-21944
31.07.26Amaru Gaming – Vici GamingAmaru Gaming11.005lost-5-21938
30.07.26Ilbirs eSports – Amaru GamingAmaru Gaming3.006lost-6-21933
30.07.26Team Falcons – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.008lost-8-21927
30.07.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingNigma Galaxy13.0014lost-14-21919
30.07.26Nigma Galaxy – 1w TeamNigma Galaxy14.0015lost-15-21905
29.07.26Rostik Team – TpaBoMaH TeamRostik Team10.0017lost-17-21890
29.07.26NS Team – Stray TeamNS Team13.0019lost-19-21873
28.07.26YBN Team – Team aviceYBN Team13.0021lost-21-21854
28.07.26NS Team – TpaBoMaH TeamNS Team13.0023lost-23-21834
27.07.26NS Team – Rostik TeamRostik Team3.6026lost-26-21810
24.07.26Nemiga Gaming – Level UPNemiga Gaming7.5029lost-29-21785
20.07.26Level UP – Ilbirs eSportsIlbirs eSports10.0032lost-32-21756
20.07.26Zero Tenacity – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming3.6010lost-10-21724
20.07.26Team Lynx – PuckChampTeam Lynx10.0036lost-36-21714
19.07.26Vici Gaming – Team YandexVici Gaming15.0018lost-18-21677
18.07.26Team Yandex – PARIVISIONTeam Yandex6.0032lost-32-21659
18.07.26BETBOOM Team – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.0024lost-24-21627
17.07.26Nigma Galaxy – BETBOOM TeamNigma Galaxy15.0035lost-35-21603
14.07.26Team Liquid – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming15.0039lost-39-21568
12.07.261w Team – Team Yandex1w Team15.0024lost-24-21529
12.07.26REKONIX – Team NemesisTeam Nemesis2.9036lost-36-21504
11.07.26PlayTime – Nigma GalaxyPlayTime5.8039lost-39-21469
10.07.26REKONIX – Team SpiritREKONIX15.0022lost-22-21430
10.07.26Team Nemesis – Vici GamingTeam Nemesis13.0061lost-61-21408
08.07.26Team Yandex – Inner CircleInner Circle15.006lost-6-21346
08.07.26Vici Gaming – PARIVISIONVici Gaming15.0019lost-19-21341
08.07.26Team Spirit – Team NemesisTeam Nemesis15.0031lost-31-21321
08.07.26GamerLegion – Xtreme GamingGamerLegion15.0084lost-84-21290
08.07.26Poor Rangers – BETBOOM TeamPoor Rangers15.0021lost-21-21206
07.07.26Inner Circle – 1w TeamInner Circle15.0053lost-53-21185
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.