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Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)

D2Dota 2Flat (10 units)payout: monthly

Value on the underdog: the same ≥ 5% edge, but only on a team at odds ≥ 2.0. Hunting underrated dogs — rarer, with bigger payouts.

profit
-4371u
ROI
-85.1%
win rate
5%
bets
514
drawdown
437.1%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)

💰
Stake size

Flat (10 units)

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25profit withdrawn+0u
period 24profit withdrawn+0u
period 23profit withdrawn+0u
period 22profit withdrawn+0u
period 21profit withdrawn+0u
period 20profit withdrawn+0u
period 19profit withdrawn+0u
period 18profit withdrawn+0u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale70%-1000-100%100%Select
Flat (10 units)5145%-4371-85.1%437.1%Selected
1% of bankroll24173%-14163-89.7%1416.3%Select
2% of bankroll24173%-19991-90.1%1999.1%Select
5% of bankroll24173%-24203-90.8%2420.3%Select
Quarter Kelly24173%-24817-92%2481.7%Select
10% of bankroll24173%-24863-90.9%2486.3%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 514, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
27.01.259Pandas – MOUZ9Pandas13.006lost-6-3371
27.01.25Team Liquid – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming15.0010lost-10-3365
27.01.25Zero Tenacity – JigglinZero Tenacity12.0010lost-10-3355
26.01.25Aurora Gaming – Xtreme GamingAurora Gaming14.0010lost-10-3345
26.01.25Yakult Brothers – AVULUSYakult Brothers13.0010lost-10-3335
26.01.25Wildcard Gaming – Tundra EsportsWildcard Gaming14.0010lost-10-3325
26.01.25Team Liquid – PARIVISIONTeam Liquid11.0010lost-10-3315
25.01.25Shopify Rebellion – AVULUSShopify Rebellion15.0010lost-10-3305
25.01.25Xtreme Gaming – Chimera EsportsChimera Esports6.3010lost-10-3295
25.01.25BETBOOM Team – Team LiquidTeam Liquid8.5010lost-10-3285
24.01.25Aurora Gaming – HeroicAurora Gaming13.0010lost-10-3275
24.01.25Tundra Esports – Shopify RebellionShopify Rebellion14.0010lost-10-3265
24.01.25Team Spirit – Yakult BrothersTeam Spirit2.1510won+12-3255
24.01.25Zero Tenacity – 4Pirates4Pirates12.0010lost-10-3266
24.01.25Zero Tenacity – ASAKURAASAKURA2.7010lost-10-3256
24.01.25Team Liquid – Talon EsportsTalon Esports4.0010lost-10-3246
24.01.25PARIVISION – Aurora GamingPARIVISION2.0510lost-10-3236
24.01.25LFG – MOUZMOUZ2.1010lost-10-3226
24.01.25Tundra Esports – Yakult BrothersTundra Esports14.0010lost-10-3216
24.01.25Xtreme Gaming – Wildcard GamingXtreme Gaming14.0010lost-10-3206
23.01.25MOUZ – LFGLFG12.0010lost-10-3196
23.01.25LFG – Quantum TeamLFG5.3010lost-10-3186
23.01.25Lesnaya Bratva – MOUZLesnaya Bratva13.0010lost-10-3176
23.01.25Into The Breach – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity12.0010lost-10-3166
23.01.25Passion UA – One MoveOne Move5.3010lost-10-3156
23.01.25MOUZ – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity2.8010won+18-3146
22.01.25Into The Breach – Lesnaya BratvaLesnaya Bratva3.6010lost-10-3164
22.01.25One Move – Night PulseOne Move7.5010lost-10-3154
21.01.25MOUZ – Nemiga GamingMOUZ3.0010lost-10-3144
21.01.25Shopify Rebellion – Wildcard GamingWildcard Gaming9.0010lost-10-3134
20.01.25Zero Tenacity – xanblxanbl12.0010lost-10-3124
20.01.25Into The Breach – TT TeamTT Team12.0010lost-10-3114
20.01.25Nigma Galaxy – Winter BearWinter Bear12.0010lost-10-3104
20.01.25Team Tidebound – Yakult BrothersYakult Brothers9.0010lost-10-3094
19.01.25Nigma Galaxy – Chimera EsportsNigma Galaxy14.0010lost-10-3084
19.01.25Night Pulse – Team SecretTeam Secret3.1010lost-10-3074
19.01.25Gaimin Gladiators – AVULUSGaimin Gladiators7.5010lost-10-3064
19.01.25Team Tidebound – Xtreme GamingTeam Tidebound12.0010lost-10-3054
19.01.25Passion UA – Team SecretPassion UA13.0010lost-10-3044
19.01.25Yakult Brothers – the goal of all life is deaththe goal of all life is death7.5010lost-10-3034
19.01.25Titan – Spiky GamingSpiky Gaming6.0010lost-10-3024
19.01.25Team Cyberding – Dead DenastyDead Denasty3.1010won+21-3014
19.01.25Heroic – M80M8010.0010lost-10-3036
18.01.25Natus Vincere Junior – OGOG11.0010lost-10-3026
18.01.25One Move – 9PandasOne Move6.6010lost-10-3016
18.01.25Talon Esports – Team KukuysTeam Kukuys7.5010lost-10-3006
18.01.25Xtreme Gaming – the goal of all life is deaththe goal of all life is death9.0010lost-10-2996
17.01.25Team Hryvnia – MOUZTeam Hryvnia12.0010lost-10-2986
17.01.25Team Spirit – One MoveOne Move12.0010lost-10-2976
17.01.25L1ga Team – 9PandasL1ga Team11.0010lost-10-2966
17.01.25Virtus.pro – L1ga TeamVirtus.pro11.0010lost-10-2956
17.01.25Team Kukuys – The MongolZTeam Kukuys2.3010won+13-2946
17.01.25BOOM Esports – Talon EsportsBOOM Esports13.0010lost-10-2958
17.01.259Pandas – Natus VincereNatus Vincere11.0010lost-10-2948
17.01.25Aurora Gaming – Team KukuysAurora Gaming12.0010lost-10-2938
17.01.25The MongolZ – InterActive PhilippinesInterActive Philippines4.2010lost-10-2928
17.01.25Execration – Team KukuysExecration10.0010lost-10-2918
16.01.25Team Spirit – 1w Team1w Team13.0010lost-10-2908
16.01.25Zero Tenacity – ASAKURAASAKURA2.8010won+18-2898
16.01.25Zero Tenacity – Winter BearWinter Bear6.6010lost-10-2916
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.