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Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)

D2Dota 2Quarter Kellypayout: monthly

Value on the underdog: the same ≥ 5% edge, but only on a team at odds ≥ 2.0. Hunting underrated dogs — rarer, with bigger payouts.

profit
-24817u
ROI
-92%
win rate
3%
bets
2417
drawdown
2481.7%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)

💰
Stake size

Quarter Kelly

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-988u
period 24top-up-973u
period 23top-up-998u
period 22top-up-1000u
period 21top-up-1000u
period 20top-up-999u
period 19top-up-1000u
period 18top-up-1000u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale70%-1000-100%100%Select
Flat (10 units)5145%-4371-85.1%437.1%Select
1% of bankroll24173%-14163-89.7%1416.3%Select
2% of bankroll24173%-19991-90.1%1999.1%Select
5% of bankroll24173%-24203-90.8%2420.3%Select
Quarter Kelly24173%-24817-92%2481.7%Selected
10% of bankroll24173%-24863-90.9%2486.3%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 2417, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
20.08.26Team Liquid – Team YandexTeam Liquid15.001lost-1-23817
20.08.26PARIVISION – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team15.001lost-1-23816
16.08.26LGD Gaming – Team YandexLGD Gaming15.001lost-1-23815
15.08.26OG – GamerLegionOG15.002lost-2-23814
15.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceXtreme Gaming11.002lost-2-23812
15.08.26PARIVISION – Team SpiritTeam Spirit14.001lost-1-23810
15.08.26BETBOOM Team – Aurora GamingBETBOOM Team15.002lost-2-23809
15.08.261w Team – Team Liquid1w Team5.301lost-1-23807
15.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.003lost-3-23805
15.08.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming15.003lost-3-23803
15.08.26Team Falcons – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.001lost-1-23800
14.08.26LGD Gaming – Nigma GalaxyLGD Gaming15.003lost-3-23799
14.08.26Team Yandex – Team LiquidTeam Yandex4.804lost-4-23795
13.08.26OG – Nigma GalaxyOG5.803lost-3-23791
13.08.26Aurora Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.002lost-2-23788
13.08.26PARIVISION – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience15.001lost-1-23787
12.08.26Level UP – Rune EatersRune Eaters4.005lost-5-23786
11.08.26Rune Eaters – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity15.005lost-5-23781
11.08.26Yellow Submarine – Zero TenacityYellow Submarine15.006lost-6-23776
11.08.26Rune Eaters – MOUZMOUZ15.007lost-7-23770
10.08.26Rune Eaters – Natus VincereRune Eaters15.003lost-3-23764
10.08.26Rune Eaters Arise – No HoodwinkRune Eaters Arise12.008lost-8-23760
08.08.26Ilbirs eSports – No HoodwinkIlbirs eSports13.009lost-9-23753
07.08.26Team Jenz – Nemiga GamingTeam Jenz14.009lost-9-23744
07.08.26Zero Tenacity – No HoodwinkNo Hoodwink13.0011lost-11-23735
06.08.26Ilbirs eSports – Power RangersIlbirs eSports6.605lost-5-23724
05.08.26Team Liquid – 1w Team1w Team15.0010lost-10-23719
05.08.26PlayTime – Yakult BrothersYakult Brothers15.0011lost-11-23709
05.08.261w Team – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team13.0015lost-15-23699
04.08.26Team Liquid – Team FalconsTeam Liquid13.0016lost-16-23684
04.08.26Yakult Brothers – Rune EatersRune Eaters12.0018lost-18-23668
04.08.26PlayTime – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience13.0019lost-19-23651
03.08.26Team Liquid – Vici GamingVici Gaming10.0015lost-15-23632
03.08.26Vici Gaming – Yakult BrothersVici Gaming3.6024lost-24-23617
03.08.26OG – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.0026lost-26-23594
03.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceXtreme Gaming3.3029lost-29-23567
03.08.26LGD Gaming – 1w TeamLGD Gaming15.0032lost-32-23538
03.08.26GLYPH – PlayTimeGLYPH14.0027lost-27-23506
02.08.26Team Liquid – LGD GamingLGD Gaming5.0023lost-23-23479
02.08.26Vici Gaming – OGOG13.0039lost-39-23456
02.08.26TpaBoMaH Team – Stray TeamStray Team13.0046lost-46-23417
02.08.26Team Falcons – 1w Team1w Team15.0027lost-27-23371
02.08.26Yellow Submarine – Team ResilienceYellow Submarine14.0054lost-54-23344
01.08.26Stray Team – TpaBoMaH TeamStray Team13.0060lost-60-23290
01.08.26GLYPH – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity6.0067lost-67-23230
01.08.26NS Team – VooDooSh TeamVooDooSh Team4.2068lost-68-23163
01.08.26BETBOOM Team – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.0026lost-26-23095
01.08.26Daxak Team – Team aviceDaxak Team11.0084lost-84-23069
01.08.26BETBOOM Team – LGD GamingLGD Gaming14.0059lost-59-22984
01.08.26Midas Club – Team ResilienceMidas Club14.0096lost-96-22925
31.07.26BETBOOM Team – Team LiquidBETBOOM Team11.003lost-3-22829
31.07.26Yakult Brothers – Zero TenacityYakult Brothers14.003lost-3-22826
31.07.26Enjoy Boys – GLYPHEnjoy Boys14.004lost-4-22823
31.07.26L1ga Team – REKONIXL1ga Team8.504lost-4-22819
31.07.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion7.003lost-3-22815
31.07.26Amaru Gaming – Vici GamingAmaru Gaming11.002lost-2-22812
30.07.26Ilbirs eSports – Amaru GamingAmaru Gaming3.003lost-3-22811
30.07.26Team Falcons – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.003lost-3-22808
30.07.26Stray Team – TpaBoMaH TeamTpaBoMaH Team12.006lost-6-22805
30.07.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingNigma Galaxy13.006lost-6-22799
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.