1000 reasons vs Team Lynx — prediction DS2ОО · Dota 2

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DreamLeague Season 28. Открытые отборочные · BO3

result vs prediction

1R1000 reasonsloss 0:2

series probability

31%69%

probability at match start · final 0:2

Team Lynxwin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1000 reasons

No games played over 6 months.

Team Lynx

Centaur Warrunnersignature

VladikTheHtiviy · 15 games

73%

Ember Spiritoften banned

mellojul · 13 games

54%

Gyrocopteroften banned

7jesu · 12 games

58%

Marsoften banned

fortniteMan · 12 games

50%

Slardaroften banned

VladikTheHtiviy · 11 games

36%

Pucksignature

mellojul · 10 games

70%

Abaddonoften banned

7jesu · 9 games

44%

Sand King

mellojul · 9 games

22%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Jakiro

560 picks · 669 bans

49%

Tusk

506 picks · 335 bans

49%

Dragon Knight

483 picks · 661 bans

49%

Centaur Warrunner

446 picks · 529 bans

55%

Snapfire

428 picks · 152 bans

50%

Hoodwink

409 picks · 196 bans

53%

Mars

377 picks · 517 bans

49%

Gyrocopter

367 picks · 501 bans

51%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)57% vs 54%

Hero pool strength53% Team Lynx

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total69% Team Lynx

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct17:37

1000 reasons 39%Team Lynx 61%

The model gave 61% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 42:17.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo