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PGL Wallachia Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jhocam · 30 games
73%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Kuku · 29 games
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 27 games
59%
Lina
Linasignature
Mikoto · 21 game
76%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Mikoto · 21 game
67%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Natsumi · 21 game
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mikoto · 20 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ws · 19 games
53%

Natus Vincere Junior

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
gotthejuice · 28 games
75%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Riddys · 28 games
61%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Niku · 27 games
59%
Lich
Lich
Riddys · 26 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
gotthejuice · 25 games
68%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 25 games
56%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
pma · 23 games
61%
Lion
Lionsignature
Daze · 20 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
475 picks · 708 bans
51%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
386 picks · 751 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
369 picks · 376 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
355 picks · 210 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
344 picks · 634 bans
50%
Bristleback
Bristleback
341 picks · 662 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
315 picks · 574 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
315 picks · 421 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 63%
Hero pool strength51% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total50% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:32
Talon Esports 49%Natus Vincere Junior 51%
The model gave 51% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 34:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerNatsumi
47% · 163 games45% · 45 games
Wraith Kinggotthejuice
Wraith King
Kunkka
KunkkaMikoto
40% · 87 games58% · 193 games
Bristlebackpma
Bristleback
Doom
DoomWs
50% · 287 games50% · 347 games
TinyNiku
Tiny
Jakiro
JakiroJhocam
55% · 251 game48% · 48 games
Shadow ShamanZayac
Shadow Shaman
Ringmaster
RingmasterKuku
51% · 91 game52% · 246 games
PhoenixRiddys
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct11:24
Talon Esports 50%Natus Vincere Junior 50%
The model gave 50% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 37:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterNatsumi
52% · 390 games46% · 363 games
Tinygotthejuice
Tiny
Riki
RikiMikoto
55% · 68 games49% · 140 games
PuckNiku
Puck
Bristleback
BristlebackWs
52% · 314 games45% · 156 games
Timbersawpma
Timbersaw
Pugna
PugnaKuku
52% · 186 games45% · 291 game
PhoenixRiddys
Phoenix
Ringmaster
RingmasterJhocam
51% · 66 games54% · 74 games
Shadow ShamanZayac
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 50%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2