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The International 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:1
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Mentality Monsterloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 16 games
44%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Palos · 11 games
55%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
cml · 11 games
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Bob · 11 games
73%
Jakiro
Jakiro
cml · 10 games
40%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 10 games
50%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Tino- · 9 games
44%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
cml · 9 games
56%

Mentality Monster

Silencer
Silencer
Juju · 7 games
57%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
OneJey · 6 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfireoften banned
GaN- · 6 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Juju · 5 games
80%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Juju · 5 games
80%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
OneJey · 4 games
100%
Luna
Luna
Cije · 4 games
75%
Meepo
Meepooften banned
Cije · 4 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
638 picks · 441 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
590 picks · 333 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
470 picks · 553 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
457 picks · 659 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
430 picks · 373 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
353 picks · 519 bans
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
343 picks · 404 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
339 picks · 1025 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 53%
Hero pool strength58% Mentality Monster
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:17
Execration 66%Mentality Monster 34%
The model gave 66% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 48:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckBob
52% · 493 games39% · 94 games
LunaCije
Luna
Clinkz
ClinkzAkashi
51% · 60 games50% · 126 games
Largoegxrdemxn
Largo
Doom
DoomTino-
54% · 150 games49% · 390 games
Void SpiritGaN-
Void Spirit
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerShanks
51% · 42 games45% · 170 games
SilencerJuju
Silencer
Bane
Banecml
58% · 143 games48% · 108 games
Keeper of the LightOneJey
Keeper of the Light
Game 2prediction missed26:35
Execration 64%Mentality Monster 36%
The model gave 64% on Execration — the game was taken by Mentality Monster in 1:02:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeTino-
52% · 163 games53% · 32 games
Phantom LancerCije
Phantom Lancer
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterAkashi
45% · 183 games44% · 102 games
Dark Seeregxrdemxn
Dark Seer
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritBob
50% · 380 games57% · 490 games
Ember SpiritGaN-
Ember Spirit
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightShanks
51% · 90 games46% · 391 game
SnapfireOneJey
Snapfire
Disruptor
Disruptorcml
53% · 260 games50% · 61 game
Ancient ApparitionJuju
Ancient Apparition
Game 4prediction correct35:17
Execration 65%Mentality Monster 35%
The model gave 65% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 42:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophos
NecrophosAkashi
35% · 20 games55% · 28 games
Ioegxrdemxn
Io
Snapfire
SnapfireBob
45% · 63 games45% · 60 games
LunaCije
Luna
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeTino-
52% · 34 games39% · 20 games
Earth SpiritGaN-
Earth Spirit
Techies
TechiesShanks
49% · 51 game55% · 60 games
LargoOneJey
Largo
Bane
Banecml
54% · 81 game59% · 81 game
Treant ProtectorJuju
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 78%
Series resultExecration 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3