FISSURE Universe: Episode 4 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BETBOOM TEAM
Muertasignature
Save- · 35 games
Beastmastersignature
MieRo · 27 games
Tusk
Kataomi · 26 games
Batridersignature
Save- · 25 games
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 22 games
Magnussignature
MieRo · 21 game
Lichsignature
Kataomi · 19 games
Monkey Kingsignature
kiyotaka · 19 games
Night Pulse
Warlocksignature
Kidaro · 21 game
Muerta
dEsire · 19 games
Pangoliersignature
Worick · 18 games
Jakiro
Kidaro · 16 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Worick · 15 games
Tinyoften banned
Worick · 15 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 14 games
Morphlingsignature
Kami · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
501 picks · 688 bans
Phoenix
432 picks · 702 bans
Clockwerk
421 picks · 408 bans
Muerta
414 picks · 317 bans
Bristleback
372 picks · 862 bans
Magnus
372 picks · 965 bans
Pangolier
366 picks · 502 bans
Batrider
365 picks · 424 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 70%
Hero pool strength52% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:3
BETBOOM TEAM 64%Night Pulse 36%
The model gave 64% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 25:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerPure~
TerrorbladeKami
Storm SpiritgpK~
TidehunterDavai
Night StalkerMieRo
Dragon KnightWorick
Keeper of the LightSave-
Ancient ApparitionKidaro
Crystal MaidenKataomi
WeaverLelis
Game 2prediction correct39:11
BETBOOM TEAM 61%Night Pulse 39%
The model gave 61% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 34:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightPure~
Phantom AssassinKami
TinygpK~
PangolierDavai
TidehunterMieRo
Storm SpiritWorick
Ancient ApparitionKataomi
Keeper of the LightLelis
Night StalkerSave-
SilencerKidaro
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 72%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2