?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 0:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Secretwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Ari · 18 games
61%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 18 games
44%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 16 games
56%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Wisper · 16 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Nine · 15 games
47%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 13 games
23%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
xNova · 11 games
36%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Nine · 11 games
55%

Team Secret

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Puppey · 11 games
36%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 11 games
27%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
423 · 10 games
60%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Kyzko · 10 games
50%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Kyzko · 9 games
33%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
423 · 9 games
33%
Invoker
Invokersignature
xn丶e · 8 games
63%
Chen
Chensignature
Puppey · 7 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
506 picks · 682 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
477 picks · 408 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
470 picks · 569 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
468 picks · 596 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
452 picks · 534 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
435 picks · 798 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
422 picks · 946 bans
58%
Lion
Lion
399 picks · 233 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 45%
Hero pool strength51% OG
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:31
OG 48%Team Secret 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 32:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin23savage
52% · 107 games49% · 170 games
MorphlingParker
Morphling
Earthshaker
EarthshakerNine
57% · 105 games45% · 123 games
BristlebackMikSa`
Bristleback
Night Stalker
Night StalkerCeb
57% · 89 games48% · 125 games
Storm SpiritSupream^
Storm Spirit
Warlock
WarlockxNova
50% · 36 games47% · 107 games
LichPuppey
Lich
Hoodwink
HoodwinkDaze
49% · 264 games45% · 76 games
Nyx AssassinThiolicor
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct16:31
OG 46%Team Secret 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 38:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin23savage
47% · 102 games54% · 136 games
Templar AssassinParker
Templar Assassin
Doom
DoomCeb
51% · 175 games48% · 166 games
LinaSupream^
Lina
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNine
44% · 213 games55% · 229 games
BristlebackMikSa`
Bristleback
Warlock
WarlockxNova
40% · 37 games63% · 41 game
RikiThiolicor
Riki
Muerta
MuertaDaze
51% · 193 games48% · 148 games
LichPuppey
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 57%
Series resultTeam Secret 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2