1x Series · BO3
result vs prediction
11Monkeyzwin 2:1series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
X3loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
11Monkeyz
No games played over 6 months.
X3
Bane
antoha · 20 games
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 20 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
NattyNarwhal · 14 games
Tiny
velheor · 14 games
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 13 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Shergarat · 12 games
Pugnaoften banned
antoha · 12 games
Treant Protectorsignature
smN · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
725 picks · 546 bans
Puck
514 picks · 1027 bans
Dawnbreaker
448 picks · 573 bans
Marci
427 picks · 759 bans
Snapfire
367 picks · 194 bans
Winter Wyvern
353 picks · 383 bans
Zeus
317 picks · 362 bans
Razor
312 picks · 616 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 51%
Hero pool strength52% X3
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total58% X3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:38
11Monkeyz 42%X3 58%
The model gave 58% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 55:12.
Game 2prediction correct25:45
11Monkeyz 42%X3 58%
The model gave 58% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 37:03.
Game 3prediction correct20:11
11Monkeyz 42%X3 58%
The model gave 58% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 22:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteX3 · 58%
Series result11Monkeyz 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3