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DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Muerta
Muerta
tOfu · 22 games
55%
Chen
Chensignature
Seleri · 20 games
60%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Quinn · 18 games
72%
Underlord
Underlord
Ace · 16 games
56%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 15 games
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Seleri · 15 games
40%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Ace · 14 games
71%
Mirana
Mirana
tOfu · 13 games
54%

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 29 games
62%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
gotthejuice · 20 games
85%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 20 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Niku · 19 games
84%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Riddys · 18 games
78%
Lich
Lich
Riddys · 17 games
59%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Niku · 17 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 16 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
413 picks · 339 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
411 picks · 538 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
365 picks · 379 bans
46%
Lion
Lion
353 picks · 182 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
352 picks · 437 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
347 picks · 584 bans
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
330 picks · 810 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
327 picks · 512 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 72%
Hero pool strength55% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:5
Gaimin Gladiators 61%Natus Vincere Junior 39%
The model gave 61% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 27:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerWatson
52% · 46 games54% · 59 games
Lifestealergotthejuice
Lifestealer
Doom
DoomAce
47% · 363 games48% · 238 games
TinyNiku
Tiny
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainQuinn
51% · 140 games50% · 265 games
Pangolierpma
Pangolier
Chen
ChenSeleri
58% · 203 games43% · 212 games
PhoenixRiddys
Phoenix
Muerta
MuertatOfu
48% · 250 games51% · 228 games
BatriderZayac
Batrider
Game 2prediction correct25:27
Gaimin Gladiators 60%Natus Vincere Junior 40%
The model gave 60% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 38:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenWatson
49% · 115 games57% · 133 games
Templar Assassingotthejuice
Templar Assassin
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerAce
51% · 122 games55% · 28 games
Lycanpma
Lycan
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritQuinn
50% · 206 games51% · 140 games
Sand KingNiku
Sand King
Batrider
BatridertOfu
43% · 271 game48% · 220 games
PhoenixZayac
Phoenix
Lich
LichSeleri
51% · 85 games49% · 278 games
ClockwerkRiddys
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 73%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2