DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:0series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Kukuysloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Talon Esports
Clockwerkoften banned
Kuku · 22 games
Phoenix
Kuku · 19 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mikoto · 17 games
Enchantressoften banned
Kuku · 16 games
Snipersignature
Mikoto · 16 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Ws · 15 games
Lionsignature
Jhocam · 15 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Akashi · 15 games
Team Kukuys
Marci
Palos · 7 games
Mirana
Palos · 5 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jing · 5 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Palos · 4 games
Tuskoften banned
Natsumi · 4 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Natsumi · 3 games
Dark Willow
Jing · 3 games
Lone Druidoften banned
Palos · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
403 picks · 512 bans
Muerta
395 picks · 320 bans
Tusk
364 picks · 384 bans
Pangolier
350 picks · 567 bans
Lion
339 picks · 164 bans
Batrider
335 picks · 418 bans
Beastmaster
330 picks · 760 bans
Gyrocopter
311 picks · 458 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 61%
Hero pool strength50% Talon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total85% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:6
Talon Esports 85%Team Kukuys 15%
The model gave 85% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 26:24.
Game 2prediction correct30:8
Talon Esports 85%Team Kukuys 15%
The model gave 85% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 24:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 85%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2