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FISSURE Universe: Episode 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Falconswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 40 games
60%
Techies
Techiessignature
Whitemon · 37 games
73%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 28 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 27 games
63%
Luna
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 26 games
81%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Whitemon · 25 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 24 games
63%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Topson · 24 games
71%

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 45 games
64%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 36 games
72%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 33 games
79%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 32 games
69%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 32 games
66%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 28 games
82%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 28 games
71%
Sven
Svensignature
Skiter · 27 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
440 picks · 372 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
398 picks · 448 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
386 picks · 867 bans
54%
Weaver
Weaver
386 picks · 822 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
368 picks · 767 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
360 picks · 505 bans
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
338 picks · 506 bans
57%
Jakiro
Jakiro
332 picks · 251 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 59%
Hero pool strength54% Team Falcons
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total64% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:39
Tundra Esports 44%Team Falcons 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 37:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaPure~
53% · 85 games45% · 110 games
LinaSkiter
Lina
Puck
PuckTopson
57% · 110 games54% · 74 games
SniperMalr1ne
Sniper
Doom
DoomRAMZES666
56% · 123 games47% · 59 games
Sand KingATF
Sand King
Windranger
Windranger9Class
53% · 120 games42% · 132 games
SnapfireCr1t-
Snapfire
Clockwerk
ClockwerkWhitemon
52% · 89 games43% · 152 games
TuskSneyking
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed40:20
Tundra Esports 43%Team Falcons 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 37:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerPure~
50% · 12 games45% · 164 games
PuckMalr1ne
Puck
Doom
DoomRAMZES666
55% · 175 games46% · 233 games
Dragon KnightSkiter
Dragon Knight
Batrider
BatriderTopson
53% · 244 games51% · 46 games
Sand KingATF
Sand King
Clockwerk
ClockwerkWhitemon
49% · 171 game44% · 154 games
WindrangerCr1t-
Windranger
Leshrac
Leshrac9Class
60% · 135 games46% · 140 games
MiranaSneyking
Mirana
Game 3prediction correct23:47
Tundra Esports 42%Team Falcons 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 44:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerPure~
48% · 11 games51% · 46 games
Sand KingMalr1ne
Sand King
Doom
DoomRAMZES666
52% · 166 games44% · 154 games
WindrangerSkiter
Windranger
Batrider
BatriderTopson
49% · 183 games51% · 140 games
KunkkaATF
Kunkka
Leshrac
Leshrac9Class
50% · 93 games52% · 64 games
SniperCr1t-
Sniper
Clockwerk
ClockwerkWhitemon
50% · 136 games53% · 185 games
SvenSneyking
Sven
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 64%
Series resultTeam Falcons 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3