DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MAG.Indonesialoss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aurora Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
MAG.Indonesia
Hoodwink
dalul · 3 games
Pugna
woMy · 3 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
dalul · 3 games
Tinyoften banned
woMy · 3 games
Meepooften banned
Cije · 2 games
Rubick
dalul · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
dalul · 1 game
Doomoften banned
dalul · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
378 picks · 351 bans
Centaur Warrunner
372 picks · 604 bans
Techies
365 picks · 291 bans
Mars
363 picks · 562 bans
Vengeful Spirit
347 picks · 339 bans
Batrider
344 picks · 713 bans
Hoodwink
329 picks · 195 bans
Tiny
326 picks · 342 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% MAG.Indonesia
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:13
Aurora Gaming 80%MAG.Indonesia 20%
The model gave 80% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by MAG.Indonesia in 47:09.
Game 2prediction missed31:16
Aurora Gaming 80%MAG.Indonesia 20%
The model gave 80% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by MAG.Indonesia in 41:42.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 80%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2