FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Pangoliersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 28 games
Windrangeroften banned
Munkushi~ · 27 games
Batrideroften banned
RESPECT · 25 games
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 25 games
Enchantresssignature
RESPECT · 25 games
Invokersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 22 games
Weaveroften banned
swedenstrong · 22 games
Marcisignature
swedenstrong · 20 games
4Pirates
Muerta
ariel · 7 games
Invokeroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 6 games
Ogre Magi
PERDAN4IK · 6 games
Primal Beastoften banned
мистер мораль · 5 games
Underlord
мистер мораль · 5 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
мистер мораль · 4 games
Lion
ariel · 4 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Otaker · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
487 picks · 621 bans
Clockwerk
461 picks · 530 bans
Pangolier
391 picks · 573 bans
Dark Willow
378 picks · 189 bans
Batrider
366 picks · 405 bans
Muerta
353 picks · 263 bans
Invoker
337 picks · 919 bans
Beastmaster
333 picks · 688 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 39%
Hero pool strength59% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total93% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:12
1w Team 78%4Pirates 22%
The model gave 78% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 35:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightMunkushi~
SniperOtaker
Linadualrazee
Timbersawмистер мораль
MarsCloud
Earth SpiritNattyNarwhal
Batriderswedenstrong
Ogre MagiPERDAN4IK
LichRESPECT
Muertaariel
Game 2prediction missed29:30
1w Team 78%4Pirates 22%
The model gave 78% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 43:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterMunkushi~
Bristlebackмистер мораль
Linadualrazee
TimbersawNattyNarwhal
MagnusCloud
SpectreOtaker
Muertaswedenstrong
Lionariel
Ogre MagiRESPECT
Shadow DemonPERDAN4IK
Game 3prediction missed21:45
1w Team 79%4Pirates 21%
The model gave 79% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 53:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaMunkushi~
Drow RangerOtaker
Linadualrazee
SniperNattyNarwhal
MagnusCloud
Doomмистер мораль
Lionswedenstrong
Muertaariel
UndyingRESPECT
TinyPERDAN4IK
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 93%
Series result4Pirates 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3