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CCT Season 2 Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 0:1
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 0:1
4Pirateswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Puck
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 30 games
67%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
kasane · 24 games
63%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 22 games
73%
Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 22 games
73%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 19 games
68%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Squad1x · 19 games
58%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
SSS · 16 games
75%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
kasane · 16 games
50%

4Pirates

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
ariel · 32 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 30 games
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 29 games
55%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
ariel · 27 games
59%
Tusk
Tusk
PERDAN4IK · 25 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 23 games
70%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
PERDAN4IK · 22 games
64%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 22 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
529 picks · 271 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
484 picks · 493 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
372 picks · 1005 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
330 picks · 378 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
312 picks · 146 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
309 picks · 524 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
306 picks · 150 bans
48%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
304 picks · 498 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 49%
Hero pool strength54% 1w Team
Head-to-head5 – 1
Model total84% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
1w Team 84%4Pirates 16%
The model gave 84% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 4Pirates.
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 84%
Series result4Pirates 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1