The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 3:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 3:0
9Pandasloss 0:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 41 game
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 33 games
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 26 games
Lunasignature
Munkushi~ · 25 games
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 24 games
Crystal Maiden
RESPECT · 22 games
Windrangersignature
Munkushi~ · 22 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 20 games
9Pandas
Marsoften banned
Alberkaaa · 14 games
Undyingoften banned
Solo · 13 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
DarkLord^ · 11 games
Batridersignature
Ekki · 8 games
Pugnasignature
Solo · 8 games
Timbersawoften banned
Alberkaaa · 8 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 7 games
Crystal Maiden
Solo · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
446 picks · 680 bans
Crystal Maiden
421 picks · 198 bans
Centaur Warrunner
395 picks · 549 bans
Gyrocopter
394 picks · 419 bans
Rubick
350 picks · 168 bans
Batrider
348 picks · 588 bans
Pangolier
337 picks · 642 bans
Dragon Knight
335 picks · 848 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 47%
Hero pool strength55% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total60% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:21
1w Team 56%9Pandas 44%
The model gave 56% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 57:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerMunkushi~
Tinkerkiyotaka
Shadow FiendChira JUNIOR
GyrocopterDarkLord^
Primal BeastCloud
Centaur WarrunnerAlberkaaa
Monkey Kingswedenstrong
UndyingSolo
BatriderRESPECT
Weaversayuw
Game 2prediction correct39:12
1w Team 55%9Pandas 45%
The model gave 55% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 40:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-MageMunkushi~
MorphlingDarkLord^
BrewmasterCloud
UnderlordAlberkaaa
TinyChira JUNIOR
Storm Spiritkiyotaka
Weaverswedenstrong
Keeper of the Lightsayuw
BatriderRESPECT
Elder TitanSolo
Game 3prediction correct28:8
1w Team 57%9Pandas 43%
The model gave 57% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 36:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterMunkushi~
Troll WarlordDarkLord^
TinyChira JUNIOR
Timbersawkiyotaka
BrewmasterCloud
BroodmotherAlberkaaa
Dark Willowswedenstrong
ClockwerkSolo
IoRESPECT
Batridersayuw
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 60%
Series result1w Team 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3