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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 1:2
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:2
AVULUSwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 36 games
53%
Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 33 games
73%
Warlock
Warlock
Rein · 32 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 31 game
42%
Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 29 games
59%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 26 games
73%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Squad1x · 26 games
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Munkushi~ · 25 games
52%

AVULUS

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
asdekor_r · 21 game
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
dualrazee · 20 games
45%
Puck
Puckoften banned
dualrazee · 17 games
59%
Warlock
Warlock
asdekor_r · 17 games
24%
Snapfire
Snapfire
JANTER · 15 games
53%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Corrupted · 15 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Ekki · 14 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Wein · 14 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
608 picks · 931 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
520 picks · 422 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
475 picks · 627 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
447 picks · 588 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
435 picks · 942 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
402 picks · 247 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
398 picks · 663 bans
59%
Tiny
Tiny
392 picks · 438 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 38%
Hero pool strength54% 1w Team
Head-to-head5 – 3
Model total59% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:29
1w Team 59%AVULUS 41%
The model gave 59% on 1w Team — the game was taken by AVULUS in 40:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainSquad1x
45% · 226 games43% · 135 games
WindrangerTA2000
Windranger
Razor
Razorssnovv1
64% · 56 games47% · 44 games
Sniperdualrazee
Sniper
Chen
ChenRein
55% · 147 games47% · 207 games
MarsCorrupted
Mars
Largo
Largoмистер мораль
57% · 57 games50% · 164 games
HoodwinkWein
Hoodwink
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanswedenstrong
54% · 192 games41% · 128 games
Phoenixasdekor_r
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct47:17
1w Team 57%AVULUS 43%
The model gave 57% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 37:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerssnovv1
49% · 190 games54% · 214 games
UrsaTA2000
Ursa
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSquad1x
57% · 535 games47% · 339 games
Puckdualrazee
Puck
Slardar
Slardarмистер мораль
51% · 321 game43% · 311 games
MarsCorrupted
Mars
Disruptor
DisruptorRein
50% · 365 games48% · 156 games
Phoenixasdekor_r
Phoenix
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinswedenstrong
58% · 90 games42% · 481 game
TinyWein
Tiny
Game 3prediction missed15:34
1w Team 56%AVULUS 44%
The model gave 56% on 1w Team — the game was taken by AVULUS in 40:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
Razorssnovv1
53% · 48 games59% · 45 games
Sniperdualrazee
Sniper
Underlord
Underlordмистер мораль
48% · 142 games46% · 285 games
Storm SpiritTA2000
Storm Spirit
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainSquad1x
39% · 275 games53% · 220 games
SlardarCorrupted
Slardar
Dark Willow
Dark Willowswedenstrong
44% · 159 games59% · 250 games
HoodwinkWein
Hoodwink
Disruptor
DisruptorRein
47% · 329 games57% · 153 games
Chenasdekor_r
Chen
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 59%
Series resultAVULUS 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3