1win Series Dota 2 Summer · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 0:2series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Entitywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 36 games
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 32 games
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 30 games
Windrangersignature
Munkushi~ · 25 games
Lunasignature
Munkushi~ · 24 games
Batrideroften banned
swedenstrong · 22 games
Crystal Maiden
RESPECT · 22 games
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 21 game
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
404 picks · 630 bans
Gyrocopter
345 picks · 365 bans
Centaur Warrunner
337 picks · 432 bans
Crystal Maiden
334 picks · 125 bans
Dark Willow
322 picks · 354 bans
Rubick
321 picks · 163 bans
Clockwerk
313 picks · 422 bans
Pangolier
312 picks · 576 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 70%
Hero pool strength56% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total85% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:28
1w Team 15%Entity 85%
The model gave 85% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 24:00.
Game 2prediction correct28:41
1w Team 15%Entity 85%
The model gave 85% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 49:53.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 85%
Series resultEntity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2