The International 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 1:1series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Heroicloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Windrangersignature
Munkushi~ · 36 games
Pangoliersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 32 games
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 28 games
Rubick
swedenstrong · 28 games
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 27 games
Enchantresssignature
RESPECT · 23 games
Weaveroften banned
swedenstrong · 23 games
Clockwerksignature
RESPECT · 22 games
Heroic
Gyrocopteroften banned
KJ · 24 games
Hoodwinkoften banned
Scofield · 22 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Scofield · 21 game
Leshracoften banned
4nalog · 19 games
Lifestealeroften banned
K1 · 19 games
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 17 games
Enchantresssignature
KJ · 15 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Davai · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
409 picks · 375 bans
Hoodwink
383 picks · 429 bans
Pangolier
366 picks · 533 bans
Jakiro
342 picks · 256 bans
Weaver
334 picks · 745 bans
Ember Spirit
318 picks · 643 bans
Tiny
316 picks · 761 bans
Phoenix
309 picks · 652 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 44%
Hero pool strength56% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total64% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:27
1w Team 59%Heroic 41%
The model gave 59% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Heroic in 37:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverMunkushi~
RazorK1
PangolierCloud
Puck4nalog
Void SpiritChira JUNIOR
DoomDavai
Leshracswedenstrong
SnapfireScofield
SvenRESPECT
ClockwerkKJ
Game 2prediction correct23:11
1w Team 59%Heroic 41%
The model gave 59% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 33:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightMunkushi~
Chaos KnightK1
BristlebackCloud
Huskar4nalog
PangolierChira JUNIOR
Centaur WarrunnerDavai
Leshracswedenstrong
ClockwerkScofield
Shadow DemonRESPECT
JakiroKJ
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 64%
Accuracy by game1 of 2