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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 1:2
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Kalmychatawin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Puck
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 23 games
70%
Tusk
Tusksignature
swedenstrong · 18 games
61%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
kasane · 18 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 17 games
71%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Munkushi~ · 16 games
75%
Bristleback
Bristleback
SSS · 14 games
57%
Doom
Doomsignature
Munkushi~ · 14 games
71%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 14 games
79%

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
61%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
63%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 16 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
310 picks · 773 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
307 picks · 282 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
272 picks · 171 bans
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
268 picks · 719 bans
49%
Pugna
Pugna
265 picks · 297 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
261 picks · 249 bans
46%
Marci
Marci
258 picks · 743 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
253 picks · 596 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 62%
Hero pool strength53% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total67% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:18
1w Team 67%Kalmychata 33%
The model gave 67% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 39:36.
Game 2prediction missed14:27
1w Team 67%Kalmychata 33%
The model gave 67% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 25:28.
Game 3prediction missed24:24
1w Team 67%Kalmychata 33%
The model gave 67% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 43:53.
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 67%
Series resultKalmychata 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3