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FISSURE Universe: Episode 6. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:1
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HULIGANIloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Doom
Doomsignature
Munkushi~ · 16 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SSS · 15 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 15 games
53%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Munkushi~ · 15 games
73%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
SSS · 14 games
71%
Puck
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 14 games
64%
Tusk
Tusksignature
swedenstrong · 14 games
64%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 13 games
38%

HULIGANI

Ringmaster
Ringmaster
mrls · 22 games
59%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
erase · 14 games
36%
Tiny
Tinysignature
erase · 13 games
69%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Malik · 12 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
RESPECT · 12 games
58%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 12 games
50%
Windranger
Windranger
mrls · 12 games
58%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
mrls · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
524 picks · 553 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
410 picks · 424 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
360 picks · 383 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
342 picks · 510 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
318 picks · 708 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
313 picks · 564 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
311 picks · 197 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
297 picks · 439 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 28%
Hero pool strength54% 1w Team
Head-to-head3 – 5
Model total65% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:30
1w Team 57%HULIGANI 43%
The model gave 57% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 47:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSquad1x
49% · 215 games59% · 159 games
Templar Assassinv1olent-
Templar Assassin
Axe
AxeSSS
44% · 102 games43% · 128 games
Queen of Painerase
Queen of Pain
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendMunkushi~
49% · 144 games49% · 84 games
UndyingCloud
Undying
Pugna
Pugnaswedenstrong
49% · 112 games63% · 97 games
ChenRESPECT
Chen
Bane
Banekasane
47% · 65 games49% · 170 games
Dark WillowImmersion
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed22:44
1w Team 58%HULIGANI 42%
The model gave 58% on 1w Team — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 52:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMunkushi~
37% · 207 games53% · 132 games
Templar Assassinv1olent-
Templar Assassin
Lycan
LycanSSS
56% · 80 games57% · 213 games
Monkey Kingerase
Monkey King
Puck
PuckSquad1x
47% · 299 games49% · 310 games
PangolierCloud
Pangolier
Undying
Undyingkasane
48% · 86 games63% · 52 games
DazzleRESPECT
Dazzle
Lion
Lionswedenstrong
46% · 209 games51% · 174 games
Shadow ShamanImmersion
Shadow Shaman
Game 3prediction correct27:14
1w Team 57%HULIGANI 43%
The model gave 57% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 41:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomMunkushi~
55% · 330 games47% · 233 games
Medusav1olent-
Medusa
Void Spirit
Void SpiritSquad1x
58% · 162 games48% · 339 games
Puckerase
Puck
Mars
MarsSSS
47% · 170 games43% · 179 games
DawnbreakerCloud
Dawnbreaker
Tusk
Tuskswedenstrong
50% · 494 games49% · 283 games
PhoenixRESPECT
Phoenix
Warlock
Warlockkasane
55% · 173 games47% · 295 games
Dark WillowImmersion
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 65%
Series result1w Team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3