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FISSURE Special · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Mosquito Clanloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 23 games
52%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fishman · 20 games
45%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Cloud · 20 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
63%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
swedenstrong · 16 games
31%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Munkushi~ · 16 games
63%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 15 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 15 games
47%

Mosquito Clan

Muerta
Muerta
Michael · 7 games
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 5 games
40%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Yadomi · 5 games
40%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
PiPi · 5 games
60%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Vitaly · 4 games
25%
Leshrac
Leshrac
PiPi · 4 games
0%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
Michael · 4 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Vitaly · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
565 picks · 790 bans
49%
Muerta
Muerta
452 picks · 324 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
441 picks · 684 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
424 picks · 772 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
406 picks · 878 bans
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
406 picks · 388 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
390 picks · 530 bans
48%
Magnus
Magnus
388 picks · 1076 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 46%
Hero pool strength51% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:18
1w Team 56%Mosquito Clan 44%
The model gave 56% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 33:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMunkushi~
48% · 80 gameslittle data
NecrophosParker
Necrophos
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritChira JUNIOR
59% · 146 games49% · 81 game
SlardarPiPi
Slardar
Bristleback
BristlebackSSS
50% · 138 games44% · 99 games
KunkkaVitaly
Kunkka
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightswedenstrong
59% · 61 game44% · 171 game
JakiroYadomi
Jakiro
Tusk
TuskHduo
53% · 169 games49% · 243 games
HoodwinkMichael
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct29:23
1w Team 54%Mosquito Clan 46%
The model gave 54% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 40:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingMunkushi~
47% · 309 games53% · 348 games
GyrocopterParker
Gyrocopter
Monkey King
Monkey KingChira JUNIOR
56% · 291 game52% · 141 game
Templar AssassinPiPi
Templar Assassin
Sand King
Sand KingSSS
56% · 205 games48% · 281 game
BristlebackVitaly
Bristleback
Batrider
Batriderswedenstrong
47% · 442 games44% · 270 games
TuskYadomi
Tusk
Ringmaster
RingmasterHduo
46% · 43 games48% · 250 games
MuertaMichael
Muerta
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 59%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2