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Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:1
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
nounsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 29 games
66%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 29 games
62%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Munkushi~ · 29 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 23 games
61%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
swedenstrong · 23 games
61%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
RESPECT · 22 games
55%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
RESPECT · 20 games
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
RESPECT · 19 games
74%

nouns

Tiny
Tinysignature
Lelis · 28 games
68%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fly · 25 games
64%
Rubick
Rubick
Lelis · 24 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Copy · 23 games
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Gunnar · 21 game
52%
Sven
Sven
Yuma · 21 game
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 20 games
65%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 18 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
401 picks · 417 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
400 picks · 895 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
397 picks · 300 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
389 picks · 803 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
347 picks · 533 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
344 picks · 692 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
340 picks · 478 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
312 picks · 380 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 49%
Hero pool strength53% 1w Team
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total64% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:22
1w Team 58%nouns 42%
The model gave 58% on 1w Team — the game was taken by nouns in 37:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightMunkushi~
51% · 138 games44% · 229 games
GyrocopterYuma
Gyrocopter
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritChira JUNIOR
44% · 210 games49% · 31 game
HuskarCopy
Huskar
Brewmaster
BrewmasterCloud
55% · 250 games50% · 237 games
Centaur WarrunnerGunnar
Centaur Warrunner
Weaver
Weaverswedenstrong
57% · 222 games55% · 199 games
EnchantressFly
Enchantress
Jakiro
JakiroRESPECT
45% · 122 games50% · 246 games
HoodwinkLelis
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct27:8
1w Team 59%nouns 41%
The model gave 59% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 28:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaMunkushi~
50% · 133 games49% · 218 games
GyrocopterYuma
Gyrocopter
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightChira JUNIOR
51% · 379 games41% · 170 games
TimbersawCopy
Timbersaw
Dark Seer
Dark SeerCloud
51% · 225 games53% · 168 games
MarsGunnar
Mars
Marci
Marciswedenstrong
56% · 105 games50% · 277 games
RubickLelis
Rubick
Disruptor
DisruptorRESPECT
54% · 191 game45% · 200 games
Crystal MaidenFly
Crystal Maiden
Game 3prediction correct35:22
1w Team 57%nouns 43%
The model gave 57% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 51:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerMunkushi~
48% · 207 games47% · 116 games
UrsaYuma
Ursa
Visage
VisageCloud
59% · 34 games51% · 383 games
TinyCopy
Tiny
Pangolier
PangolierChira JUNIOR
51% · 369 games51% · 205 games
DoomGunnar
Doom
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
46% · 334 games51% · 217 games
Shadow DemonLelis
Shadow Demon
Clockwerk
ClockwerkRESPECT
52% · 232 games49% · 255 games
PhoenixFly
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 64%
Series result1w Team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3