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FISSURE Special · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0
series probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Paseka Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 24 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Cloud · 22 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fishman · 20 games
45%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
63%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Munkushi~ · 18 games
61%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
swedenstrong · 17 games
35%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Munkushi~ · 16 games
38%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Munkushi~ · 16 games
63%

Paseka Team

Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Chuvash · 5 games
0%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
dizzying · 3 games
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
DkFogas · 2 games
0%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
DkFogas · 2 games
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Egor · 2 games
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Egor · 2 games
0%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
DkFogas · 2 games
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DkFogas · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
572 picks · 801 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
444 picks · 290 bans
51%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
430 picks · 823 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
410 picks · 638 bans
51%
Bristleback
Bristleback
408 picks · 858 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
382 picks · 337 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
379 picks · 1004 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
375 picks · 508 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 22%
Hero pool strength62% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total93% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:28
1w Team 79%Paseka Team 21%
The model gave 79% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 40:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomMunkushi~
50% · 198 games46% · 37 games
Wraith Kingdizzying
Wraith King
Lycan
LycanSSS
50% · 46 games46% · 134 games
SniperEgor
Sniper
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightChira JUNIOR
47% · 245 games56% · 225 games
Sand KingDkFogas
Sand King
Jakiro
Jakiroswedenstrong
45% · 175 games55% · 80 games
Ancient ApparitionChuvash
Ancient Apparition
Ringmaster
RingmasterHduo
43% · 38 games55% · 226 games
EnchantressMisha
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct18:8
1w Team 80%Paseka Team 20%
The model gave 80% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 18:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackMunkushi~
51% · 158 games43% · 3 games
Necrophosdizzying
Necrophos
Medusa
MedusaSSS
49% · 70 games45% · 229 games
Ember SpiritEgor
Ember Spirit
Sand King
Sand KingChira JUNIOR
51% · 100 games55% · 110 games
EnigmaDkFogas
Enigma
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightswedenstrong
48% · 51 game47% · 66 games
RingmasterMisha
Ringmaster
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenHduo
55% · 108 games50% · 79 games
Night StalkerChuvash
Night Stalker
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 93%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2