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PGL Wallachia Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Pipsqueak+4loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 39 games
49%
Rubick
Rubick
swedenstrong · 25 games
48%
Venomancer
Venomancer
Rein · 21 game
57%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Whitemon · 20 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 19 games
47%
Bristleback
Bristleback
мистер мораль · 18 games
56%
Kez
Kezsignature
Pure~ · 18 games
72%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 18 games
44%

Pipsqueak+4

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ekki · 19 games
58%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Ekki · 12 games
58%
Kez
Kezoften banned
rincyq · 12 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Copy · 12 games
67%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Malik · 11 games
73%
Mirana
Miranasignature
aik · 10 games
70%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Copy · 9 games
89%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
rincyq · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
491 picks · 292 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
362 picks · 159 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
357 picks · 155 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
326 picks · 476 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
301 picks · 301 bans
55%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
292 picks · 467 bans
53%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
287 picks · 266 bans
59%
Undying
Undying
268 picks · 370 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 56%
Hero pool strength56% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total70% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:19
1w Team 62%Pipsqueak+4 38%
The model gave 62% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 37:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
Timbersaw33
56% · 268 games52% · 254 games
Shadow Fiendrincyq
Shadow Fiend
Sven
SvenShad
49% · 131 game48% · 150 games
AxeMalik
Axe
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyerbzm
39% · 24 games42% · 44 games
EarthshakerCopy
Earthshaker
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernWhitemon
52% · 243 games56% · 417 games
Hoodwinkaik
Hoodwink
Windranger
WindrangerAri
50% · 419 games46% · 220 games
Dark WillowEkki
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct47:34
1w Team 60%Pipsqueak+4 40%
The model gave 60% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 1:03:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightbzm
46% · 158 games54% · 88 games
Lone Druidrincyq
Lone Druid
Doom
Doom33
49% · 172 games49% · 310 games
Storm SpiritCopy
Storm Spirit
Windranger
WindrangerShad
49% · 217 games57% · 168 games
UndyingMalik
Undying
Techies
TechiesWhitemon
45% · 138 games54% · 190 games
Keeper of the LightEkki
Keeper of the Light
Dark Willow
Dark WillowAri
45% · 183 games51% · 112 games
Lichaik
Lich
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 70%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2