Elite League Season 2 · BO5
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 2:3series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:3
Team Liquidwin 3:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Windrangersignature
Munkushi~ · 30 games
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 29 games
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 29 games
Pangoliersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 25 games
Rubicksignature
swedenstrong · 24 games
Crystal Maiden
RESPECT · 22 games
Batrideroften banned
RESPECT · 20 games
Clockwerksignature
RESPECT · 20 games
Team Liquid
Rubick
Boxi · 37 games
Brewmasteroften banned
33 · 34 games
Doomsignature
33 · 34 games
Tinysignature
Boxi · 32 games
Lunaoften banned
miCKe · 29 games
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 29 games
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 28 games
Enchantressoften banned
iNSaNiA · 23 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
413 picks · 428 bans
Rubick
413 picks · 306 bans
Tiny
405 picks · 900 bans
Weaver
395 picks · 815 bans
Phoenix
359 picks · 710 bans
Pangolier
356 picks · 537 bans
Clockwerk
346 picks · 484 bans
Dragon Knight
316 picks · 523 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 51%
Hero pool strength53% 1w Team
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total62% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:23
1w Team 45%Team Liquid 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 23:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeMunkushi~
LunamiCKe
BeastmasterCloud
Ember SpiritNisha
PangolierChira JUNIOR
Sand King33
RubickRESPECT
Elder TitaniNSaNiA
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
Shadow DemonBoxi
Game 2prediction missed
1w Team 38%Team Liquid 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by 1w Team.
Game 3prediction correct27:43
1w Team 47%Team Liquid 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 54:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordMunkushi~
Storm SpiritNisha
Primal BeastChira JUNIOR
WindrangermiCKe
Centaur WarrunnerCloud
Pangolier33
EnchantressRESPECT
MarciBoxi
Shadow Demonswedenstrong
Crystal MaideniNSaNiA
Game 4prediction missed31:19
1w Team 46%Team Liquid 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by 1w Team in 33:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingMunkushi~
GyrocoptermiCKe
UnderlordCloud
Void SpiritNisha
WindrangerChira JUNIOR
Pangolier33
EnchantressRESPECT
Crystal MaideniNSaNiA
Tinyswedenstrong
MarciBoxi
Game 5prediction correct28:32
1w Team 47%Team Liquid 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 49:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerMunkushi~
Ember SpiritNisha
Primal BeastChira JUNIOR
RazormiCKe
Dark SeerCloud
Pangolier33
Marciswedenstrong
MorphlingBoxi
RubickRESPECT
Treant ProtectoriNSaNiA
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 62%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 5