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1win Series Dota 2 Spring · BO1
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 0:1
series probability
7%93%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Team Spiritwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 20 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 19 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
42%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
63%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Cloud · 18 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Chira JUNIOR · 16 games
81%
Luna
Lunasignature
Munkushi~ · 16 games
69%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 14 games
50%

Team Spirit

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 21 game
76%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Larl · 19 games
63%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 18 games
61%
Lion
Lion
Mira · 17 games
59%
Puck
Pucksignature
Larl · 17 games
76%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 14 games
79%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 13 games
62%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Larl · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
383 picks · 355 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
361 picks · 573 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
349 picks · 528 bans
55%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
346 picks · 336 bans
50%
Techies
Techies
342 picks · 269 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
326 picks · 659 bans
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
315 picks · 190 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
303 picks · 311 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 45%
Hero pool strength53% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total93% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:25
1w Team 22%Team Spirit 78%
The model gave 78% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 44:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeMunkushi~
51% · 190 games58% · 103 games
LifestealerYatoro
Lifestealer
Razor
RazorCloud
46% · 72 games54% · 19 games
SniperLarl
Sniper
Kunkka
KunkkaChira JUNIOR
45% · 110 games48% · 173 games
Dragon KnightCollapse
Dragon Knight
Techies
TechiesRESPECT
47% · 361 game54% · 212 games
PugnaMiposhka
Pugna
Tiny
Tinyswedenstrong
49% · 226 games48% · 452 games
RubickMira
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 93%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1